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NFTRH; Gold Sector Health Checkup & Technical Update (high priority)

I made a note in the Trade Log about a mistake I made in putting too much stock in what were still over bullish readings in the gold miners yesterday. Today they have flipped to over bearish. This data is set to too high a sensitivity for my liking, as it appears to track the daily swings in sentiment too closely for anyone but a … Continue reading NFTRH; Gold Sector Health Checkup & Technical Update (high priority)

The Men Who Stare at Charts: Ups and Downs of Trading Psychology

I have had countless situations where I’ve taken a solid profit on a stock and then watched it explode much higher. ROKU is the most recent situation. It’s tough, but it is what it is. It is really easy to see the gains you missed out on when a stock explodes higher. But what about the losses you missed out on? Last June I wrote … Continue reading The Men Who Stare at Charts: Ups and Downs of Trading Psychology

Trade War Distortions?

I have found myself writing the phrase “trade war distortions” on multiple occasions because I personally cannot see how anyone can quantify the effects of the Trump/China standoff, economically. In NFTRH we have tracked the crash in the Baltic Dry global shipping cost index as a negative divergence to global markets and commodities since Q4 2018. In a couple of posts on Monday we noted … Continue reading Trade War Distortions?

“The Fed is Still Tightening”

Over at Biiwii Steve Saville makes the case to clearly refute the Twitter mob instigators riling ’em up against the Fed’s dovish rollover. What the Fed is Doing: Perception vs. Reality Despite the dovish talk coming out the Fed’s collective orifice and despite the Tweeting rabble rousers and despite what the wise guys think over at the CME Futures (virtually no chance of a hike in … Continue reading “The Fed is Still Tightening”

Doctor Copper Pokes Higher Still, But No Prescription Yet

Copper lurched higher today and like the stock market, eased its enthusiasm a bit into the close. Click for a better view. I think you can sort of tell the key area, eh? If not, here’s one of the charts from NFTRH 540. It’ obvious where copper needs to go to indicate positive things and where it needs to stay in order not to. The … Continue reading Doctor Copper Pokes Higher Still, But No Prescription Yet

SPX Hits Extreme Target & Recoils, VIX & GDP Now Tank

If there are any bears with enthusiasm left out there they may want to be watching the point from which SPX reached and reversed (a bit) today. The extreme target was 2815 and today’s high is close enough for government work. Minor support is at 2750 and better support is at 2625. Now, resistance is not a stop sign and this thing could test its … Continue reading SPX Hits Extreme Target & Recoils, VIX & GDP Now Tank

Gold Bullhorns Quieted for a Day, at Least

Over in the gold patch things went from disinterested and downright antagonistic (A Notable Lack of Interest in Gold) to sleepy (Gold “Community” Crickets) to ferociously over bullish. Any long-time and right minded gold bug will tell you that the latter condition is usually a signal to prepare for some turbulence.Wednesday and Thursday brought the turbulence in the form of a reversal and pullback for … Continue reading Gold Bullhorns Quieted for a Day, at Least

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NFTRH; Simplified Daily & Weekly Charts of HUI (med. priority)

My charts and updates can be busy with moving averages and other clutter (like my constant harping about fundamentals and indicators :-)). So once in a while it is nice to strip everything out to the bare bones. These charts are large and clicking them will give a clearer view. Daily HUI is back testing a break above the top line of a wedge today. … Continue reading NFTRH; Simplified Daily & Weekly Charts of HUI (med. priority)

After Inflationist Bugs FOMO at the Mouth, GDX & Inflation Signals Go the Other Way

Daily looks in-market are not meant to be a science. It is longer trends that eventually reveal the logic of ongoing macro moves. But I do find it interesting that on a day when inflation expectations gauges were pressured GDX broke out of its bullish flag, and on a day when those gauges are jumping GDX is on a pullback. What do you think, Beuller? … Continue reading After Inflationist Bugs FOMO at the Mouth, GDX & Inflation Signals Go the Other Way