NFTRH Update: Checkup on Stock Market Indicators

The Small Caps (Russell 2000), which have been market leaders, have led this mini correction.  RUT is now nearing a point – by the 50 day moving averages and by RSI – that has limited all previous pullbacks.  Watch RUT as a signal to a traditional bullish late December into January or the opposite, a more severe correction.  A breakdown from the MA 50’s would break the mechanical trend of the bull of the last year.

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NFTRH Update, Key ETF Charts

GLD is right at the line that puts some bull potential back in the picture.  What I find most interesting is something that was mentioned last week… gold starting to respond in a positive way despite the dreaded ‘taper’ talk.  This reinforces our view that the sooner taper begins, the better (still subject to short term negative reactions depending on a majority of traders’ perceptions).

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Closing the 2008 ‘Gap’

A disclaimer:  I am long and/or trading several regular ‘bull stocks’ (as well as short a couple).  Don’t interpret the sober message below as a ‘sell your stocks right now!’ style bearish warning.  Indeed, after an expected choppy start to December I think more bull market mania, errr… rally, could still be ahead.  But it would be just dandy if people would keep their perspective along the way.

From the December 1 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 267):

Closing the 2008 ‘Gap’

In 2008 market and economic participants suffered a hard downside ‘gap’ in the prices of their assets and in the levels of their expectations.  The bull market that began in March of 2009 is doing a fine job of closing that gap and fully resetting the herd from the utter fear mode of Q4, 2008 to a 2007 or even 1999 style greed mode today.

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NFTRH Update, Trade Op… Rare Earths / Tax Loss / Jan. Effect

An update for would-be Tax Loss / ‘January Effect’ buyers…

As you may have noticed in the portfolio section of NFTRH 267, REMX was added for a diversified play on the REE sector.  This is as much a tax loss and would-be ‘January effect’ play as anything else.  Also, if the economy remains strong (ISM just out at a strong 57.3%) I would expect certain strategic commodities to eventually gain a bid in the first half of 2014.

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