GLD is bouncing, reclaiming the ‘neckline’ to the bearish pattern (as noted, gold itself already did this). Within the pattern a Triangle is drawn. Big resistance is the 50 MA’s and the nose of this Triangle. Success there makes it neutral. Ultimately, GLD needs to make a higher high (above 130) from the October high and get MACD green to be a bull.
SLV encounters strong resistance at 20 and above. That gets it to neutral. A bull signal comes with a break of the MA 200’s, a higher high to October’s and MACD going 0+ (green). SLV is on a bear signal.
GDX is at the first resistance, the neckline. It gets strongly neutral at 24 and bullish with a higher high to October and a green MACD. For now, bear signal.
SIL is within what could be a bullish Falling Wedge. A break of the wedge and the MA 50’s gets it to neutral. Full bull is above the October high, the 200 MA’s and MACD 0+. On a bear signal now.
DBC broke down from the little wedge we had noted previously. Now, it is bouncing with the rest of the market. DBC is on a bear signal struggling to get back to neutral.
SPY has not dropped enough to give a decent buy for a Santa rally. All things considered it is on a high risk bull signal. A loss of the MA 50’s brings neutral heading to bear.
EZU is neutral and quickly heading toward bearish with a weird looking pattern that is threatening the MA 50’s. A break of noted support turns this picture bearish.
EEM is on a neutral signal heading toward bear. There is a series of lower highs from October. If a lower low to November happens, stick a fork in the EM’s.
FXI dropped from the ugly pattern we had noted previously. This pattern formed before FXI could reclaim the broken red trend line. FXI now tries to find support at the MA 50’s. FXI is neutral and needs new recovery highs and MACD to trigger up for a bull signal. That does not look imminent. FXI gets bearish if it fails the MA 50’s and goes full bear below 36.
Summary
The precious metals bounce has proven nothing and will not until the noted levels are reclaimed.
Commodities are uninspiring at best.
The stock market is weakening.
If markets continue to rally into FOMC I would advise caution, across the board. We cannot talk about Santa rally until a good risk/reward level is attained from which to play it. As for FOMC week and Santa rally prospects, the technicals in everything continue to creep toward bearish. Those are the technicals. What happens during a hype filled week and a hype filled season could be a different matter. But there is not a single chart above that makes me feel bullish.
