NFTRH Update: Precious Metals Reversals

First, please understand how much the many notes I received from NFTRH subscribers upon my father’s passing meant to me.  Thank you so much for your thoughts.  This is about much more than simply writing financial commentary for customers or clients.  Over the relatively few years I have been doing the NFTRH service, I have come to have warm feelings for the subscriber base as … Continue reading NFTRH Update: Precious Metals Reversals

NFTRH Update, URG Trade (+18%)

Uranium prospect UR-Energy is up 17+% today.  I had noted that the position was increased on a down day recently.  I am using today’s pop to take a partial profit of about 18% in the form of those extra shares as URG bounces to short term resistance.  I may also take the remainder of the profit before day’s end or tomorrow.  I have not decided on that yet.

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Party Today, Macro Market Changes Ahead

The following is an excerpt from NFTRH 270, dated 12.22.13:

Now What?  This is What

From NFTRH 269’s opening segment ‘Market Correction on Cue, Now What?’:

“The question now is whether or not this is the start of a larger topping scenario and the answer to that question is for now at least, no, not by evidence showing up in our indicators like junk bond (risk on) speculation and sentiment, which was dialed back from heartily over bullish to neutral by the correction of the last couple of weeks.”

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NFTRH Update: Gold Stock Buy Points

With things in the media like a market strategist declaring he wouldn’t buy gold with his worst enemy’s money (CNBC) and SoGen declaring gold is finished as a safe haven investment (MarketWatch) I am given doubt about our nice neat downside technical targets.  The targets are there mind you, but technical analysis can go right out the window with one shift in the markets as we all know.

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Enjoy the Punch Holiday Revelers

Party goers are gathered around the punch bowl as expected after the FOMC’s token move on QE.  Jeff Lacker is jawboning additional tapers in $10b chunks and all seems right, except… the ‘continuum’ (AKA the 100 month EMA on the 30 year bond yield chart).


Let me ask you Beuller, what happened at the red arrow in 2000?  What happened after the red arrow in 2007?  What happened after the plunge in 2008?  What happened after the red arrow in 2011?  What happened after the most recent bottom in 2012?  The answers are 1) the end of a secular bull market in stocks, 2) the end of the last cyclical bull market in stocks, 3) the birth of the current cyclical bull market in stocks, 4) the end of the big cyclical commodities rally and 5) the launch of this most powerful leg of the cyclical stock bull market.

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It’s ‘taper’ talk time again and here is a post that is only too happy to join the cacophony…

Dear Federal Reserve, please signal what would be at least a symbolic gesture to the market and pretend to tighten policy by beginning a tapering of long-term bond buying.  We know inflation is being promoted via ZIRP at the discount window and via money printing used for T bond and MBS asset purchases.

Now it is time to ‘taper’ and let long-term yields rise if that is what the free market wants them to do.  Given the decades-long limit at the 100 month EMA (AKA the deflationary backbone) potentially imposed by this chart, a further rise in yields is debatable anyway if all you plan to do is taper a bit.  The ‘Continuum’ in the Long Bond’s yield is at this would-be limit point after all.

30 Year Yield, Monthly

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