Given a potential bottoming in the Uranium sector, the Uranium ETF URA is added to the Key ETF updates.
GLD found support at the June low and is on a low volume bounce. GLD is on a bear signal below the red neckline, below the MA 50’s with MACD down.
SLV is bouncing with a MACD trigger, but remains bearish. Things get interesting from the bullish side above 20.
GDX is bouncing but remains on a bear signal. The first step is to take the red line, the next and more important is to take and hold the MA 50’s at 22+.
SLV-GLD continues to be a thorn in the bears’ side for the precious metals as silver, which we might anticipate to be an early leader, has doggedly refused to break down vs. gold as it consolidated the entire post-August correction.
SIL remains in a Falling Wedge, which often resolves bullish, and has held support (June low) so far. MACD is triggered up but SIL is on a bear signal going for neutral. Neutral comes with a break of the top line and it would start to get bullish above 12.
DBC is on a weak bull signal, which would become firmer with a break of the red neckline.
URA is on a bull signal as long as it remains above the MA 50’s.
SPY is on a bull signal and could be entering a blow off phase. Not like silver in 2011, but a mini blow off that brings on a hard correction at least and an end to the cyclical bull at most. A maxi blow off would for example be the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 getting to our seemingly ridiculous targets of 2192 and 1378 respectively.
EZU exploded upward from a messy pattern off of the support we noted previously. It is on a bull signal and only mildly over bought.
EEM is on a bear signal below the trend line and the MA 50’s. Critical support is around 40.
FXI has continued to correct right into a bear signal. However, that could be a Falling Wedge, painting a potential technical buying opportunity for people bullish on China fundamentally. 36 is critical support to that notion.
Technically the precious metals remain bearish on balance, with the holiday bounce not yet remedying the situation. This also happens to be the area that I personally believe could become significant bull opportunity before too long, so I am watching it closely. The Silver-Gold ratio above helps the case, while the HUI-Gold ratio does not, yet. I continue to prefer a ‘final washout to downside targets’ scenario as a data point. But the sector is on a bounce and we’ll follow along with great interest.
Commodities are looking better. The CCI index has put in a short term double bottom at/above the critical 500 support level. It remains to be seen whether this is a bounce or something more substantial with a break of the weekly downtrend line (which we’ll follow in NFTRH).
I have been liking Uranium more and more. This one has been in the dumps so long and is usually such a wild card in the commodity sector that I am willing to give it long term investment consideration as long as the technicals remain constructive.
The US stock market is doing what it is ‘supposed’ to be doing, and Europe says ‘me too!’
Emerging and China are a different story, although I am keeping an eye on FXI from a bullish standpoint.