NFTRH Update, Key ETF Charts

GLD lost the battle with the neckline yesterday and remains bearish.

gld

SLV remains on a bear signal.

slv

GDX remains on a bear signal.

gdx

SIL remains on a bear signal.

sil

DBC is on a bear signal, struggling for neutral, which would come above the red dotted neckline.

dbc

Today’s MSM headline is ‘More taper fears as Dow set to open below 16,000‘, and this fits with our theory that a rough December start could reload markets for resumed bullishness.  Regardless, SPY is over bought and could use a correction.  MACD is flat and potentially starting to roll.  SPY is on a bull signal.

spy

EZU continues to chop around after losing the extreme uptrend line.  50 day moving averages (blue) are key.  EZU is on a wobbly bull signal.

ezu

EEM broke upward from the flag we noted last week and then flopped.  EEM is neutral with a lean toward bearish.

eem

FXI broke upward from the flag noted last week then got dinged.  Somewhat over bought and on a bull signal.

fxi

Summary

We remained bearish on the precious metals despite the Black Friday levitation.  That is because daily chart signals remained bearish (MACD, MA 50’s).  Now it appears a climactic phase could be engaging.  In this phase (if that is what is happening) we will not have technical ‘buy’ signals.  Rather it would be about sentiment; specifically fearful sentiment and volume.  Complicating matters in the precious metals is as you know, a lack of the clearly bullish fundamentals we had in the 2008 crash as the gold-oil, gold-commodities, gold-stock market, etc. ratios are not positive in this economic growth environment.

As for the stock market, I continue with the plan that it is probably terminal in a way that silver was terminal in 2011.  Within that I’ll be ready to go bearish at any time.  But currently we are still operating on bullish signals and a need for an interim correction to cool things down a bit.