Even as silver continues to lead gold, check out gold (GLD) vs. SPX (SPY). The pattern is an inverted H&S, which would be a bullish reversal if it continues to follow through. Not a fan of patterns (they fail all the time), especially on ratios? Well, the relative price has broken to a new recovery high after the August breakdown low. What’s more, it has … Continue reading NFTRH+; a nice chart that is right in the wheel house of the preferred macro view
I’ve increased the ratio of gold stocks to non-gold stocks in the portfolios today. Added were AEM and BTG (to go with GBR.V, MAI.V, GBRR.V, OGN,V, SSRM, WDO.TO and GDX) while a few regular stocks were removed to take profits and limit losses, but also to change the balance. The reason is simply that the broad stock market is at high risk (vs. potential reward) … Continue reading NFTRH+; even if this is not ‘THE’ gold stock rally…
Quick pics and brief comments. SPX recovers to near an all-time high after a sentiment micro-twitch, NDX ticks a new high and SOX recovers above the SMA 50, regardless of its internal divergences (e.g. Semi Equipment). The world is bouncing. Since this is occurring above the rising SMA 200 it is still technically intact, unattractive pattern notwithstanding. Commodities (DBC) are bouncing but still potentially in … Continue reading NFTRH+; Today’s market
GDX/GLD ratio is not confirming gold’s bounce And so, considering what at least has a chance to shake out as my preferred macro scenario – complete with gold herds, stock herds, inflation herds and any other sheeple rushing toward that cliff over there – I am becoming interested, even excited about the macro now. Summer is ending soon and post-labor day we’ll see who the … Continue reading Gold Miners not yet buying it
The bad news is that both GLD and SLV have filled the most recent down gaps. The good news is that they both also have gaps still open well higher. Gold and silver do not have these gaps, but they do represent emotional or active junctures and in my opinion that matters. If the bounce scenario is not ready yet then both gold and silver … Continue reading NFTRH+; A little GLD & SLV micromanagement
A look at a key indicator for the broader macro and for gold stocks The US stock market is getting clobbered today on Biden’s capital gains and corporate tax plans (ouch) and yet gold can’t even muster a hint in relation. The miners on the other hand have at least made a hint (as they also have relative to the metal they dig out of … Continue reading Gold and the Miners vs. SPY
A few pictures of upside gaps filling on various indexes, as we speculated might happen on the short-term. HUI is going for the gap just above 330. The keys to exiting the correction are the SMA 50 and October high. GLD filled last week’s gap down and has another gap just above. The key here is the SMA 50 and then the October high that … Continue reading NFTRH+; Gaps Filling, Parameters Noted
Is this a bullish Cup & Handle forming in gold (GLD)? If so, it’s still just a baby handle and these things can go on further than you might expect after first identifying the Cup & Handle. Negative: It was a gappy ride up for GLD during the Santa seasonal and war drums. So there could be some significant back-filling work to do here. Positive: … Continue reading Gold Cup & Handle?
It’s all according to the favored view of an ongoing grind of a correction, thus far expressed more in time than in price (although gold has ground off 100 bucks from its price while silver has taken a $3/oz haircut). What appear to be small bear flags in gold and silver could precede a resumption of the correction. But the minimum expected downside for the … Continue reading Gold and Silver Prices in Bear Flags
Were I conspiracy minded I’d be looking at this chart and wanting to punch someone (or some black box robot) in the face. Oh wait, I am conspiracy minded; the market is little more than a collection of conspiracies large and small, perpetrated in groups and individually. It’s how we handle that information that matters. This conspiracy appears to be large. Listen, did you hear … Continue reading Gold’s Disgusting Action, In-Day (2 min. chart)
Because why not? The inverse of our old friend Amigo #1 (SPX/Gold ratio) is a primary macro indicator, after all. When last we looked at SPY/GLD we noted a less than stellar setup. That must’ve meant that GLD/SPY was constructive at least to end its consolidation. Here’s the current view. No trend change and daily RSI and MACD are still in the red but RSI … Continue reading A Look at the GLD/SPY Ratio
The simplest of updates to remind that the HUI/Gold ratio has remained intact throughout the sector pullback and that remains the case today as gold and silver continue to drop but the miners stabilize, for a day at least. Here’s the HGR using HUI/GLD for a real time view. We would want to see the converging moving averages hold and so far they are. That … Continue reading NFTRH Update; A Precious Metals Sub-indicator’s Status (high priority)
A brief daily chart update for the precious metals. Let’s be aware that today is FOMC Minutes day, so markets may get some whipsaw. GLD is still fine at or above the 50 day averages. SLV is much more suspect as it starts to lose a trend line. The uptrend would be intact even if SLV drops to around 16. This is for consideration by … Continue reading NFTRH; Daily View of Gold (GLD), Silver (SLV) and GDX
Using the ETFs for a real time view…
SLV is filling a gap near 15.50 and tagging the SMA 50. That’s the 1st potential support. Better support is 14.40 (SMA 200) to 14.75 (trend line).