From the email to subscribers that accompanied NFTRH 361: "The Indicators segment beats us all to a pulp talking about yield spreads, but I find more and more that this…
Reviewing the US stock market picture from a few different angles... NFTRH been using the Equity Put/Call ratio to gauge pressure on the US stock market for all of 2015. …
I covered a leveraged short in Small Caps, though I maintain a straight out short on SPY, which I have been holding for maybe a couple months now. I even…
SPX bounced from the MA 200 and is using the 50 day moving averages as support. Key resistance is low 2130's. Key support around 2100. INDU is more bearish and…
A commitment has come up this weekend that will only allow me the time to review key points in NFTRH 354. What a great opportunity to put more detail than usual in an update [edit: this has turned out to be NFTRH 354, with a PDF update to be mailed on Sunday].
Using some ETF's we note that the headline indexes are not looking good in the US. DIA looks like its bounce could be a bear flag on declining volume. Key…
The summer correction came and it lasted exactly one day!
Well, that is hyperbole because what really happened was that a market that was sagging and losing momentum was shoved downward in one great, noise-filled plunge as some indexes reached initial support targets that we were noting.
Dow is up solidly today, but this is only bouncing it to the broken 50 day moving averages. SPX is up a smaller amount, which makes sense since it was…
Here is the note from the email to subscribers that accompanied the full report... "I thought is was time to bulk up a bit to a 30+ page report this…
US markets opened strongly in the green and reversed downward amidst an already suspect general technical status. A ‘pop and drop’ reversal is usually not a good thing, but it is early in the day.
Excerpted from NFTRH 336…
US Stock Market
We start with our perspective chart in case there is any doubt. Janet Yellen is not to be taken so seriously, but the distortions built into this chart by post-2008 policy are.
We will manage markets by daily charts with in-week updates as needed, but the weekly charts, beginning with the leading Biotech index continues to be just fine.
A trend is not broken until it is broken. This one is fully intact and last week’s put down or any to come that do not close below the blue arc line are just pullbacks within the trend. One day it will break and bears will say “I told you so”, but in the meantime BTK has been a guide instructing against active bearishness.
Meanwhile, Biotech continues to lead the Nasdaq 100 and more than that, the ratio is in a secular bull market. Now, I don’t want to go all bubble head on you but what is the implication here? To me, given the long-term nature of this chart one implication is that one technology really is standing the test of time vs. the average of so many other technologies, from critically important ones to those silly ones that allow people to take selfies and pictures of their food so they can bore other people with them.
In other words, I buy the Biotech story, long-term. That is different from calling Bio simply an important ‘momentum’ leader in the current late stage US stock bull market, which I believe it also is.
US Stocks
This headline says it all. Playing its assertion straight, we acknowledge that what was a bubble in asset market supporting policy could morph into a bubble and blow off (i.e. mania) in stocks.
US Stock Market
Nasdaq hit 5000, market sentiment became over bullish to an extreme and yesterday was a down day. Indexes put a tail on their candles and closed above the low of the previous day. SPX was the worst potential offender of the major indexes yesterday. Had it closed below Monday’s low we’d have noted that as short-term bearish.
Here is a chart of more components of the US stock market from an NFTRH update last week. It is untouched from that update other than its own progress, time…