US markets opened strongly in the green and reversed downward amidst an already suspect general technical status. A ‘pop and drop’ reversal is usually not a good thing, but it is early in the day.
If Dow (and SPX, etc.) weakens and closes lower today we could be on the first part of the current plan, which is a ‘sell in May (or June)’ correction. Here is what the Dow has done so far today (1 min. chart).
As noted in recent reports, the market is not looking good with the exception of a few leaders (also, let’s not forget the very bearish Transports), so let’s update the Semiconductor and Biotech indexes.
Support at 730 needs to hold on the SOX. This represents the point where it made new cyclical highs. A loss of that area would kick a leadership leg out from under the market’s table. For now, it is stable.
The Biotech index looks worse as it is poking through support today. Interestingly, NFTRH+ selection Gilead (GILD) is solidly green, but it has been uncorrelated to the sector for some time now.
For bigger picture reference, here is the status of the BTK weekly ‘Arc’ chart. This chart was used as a bullish indicator on the broad market for a over a year. Now it is potentially a bearish leading indicator.
Just a few pictures for your consideration. The broad market remains at risk of near-term correction with a potential summer rebound plan to be managed later if/as applicable.
Risk management continues to be advised until the situation clears.