Stock Market

Stock Market

Hype Down, Hype Up: DJIA

I currently own 3 components of the venerable Dow 30 index, so today is fine.  But the markets were driven down on China hype on Friday and up on same…

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April 20, 2015
NFTRH Interim Updates

Anti-USD Asset Rally Status

As suspected would be the case, the US dollar appears to have resumed its correction after rising to test the high.  The first important support zone has been the shelf surrounding 94, which intersects a trend line from last summer’s lows.

usd

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April 16, 2015
Economy

USD & Earnings

From FactSet, here is a graphic compiling data from the initial earnings reports from S&P 500 companies so far for Q1.  At 70%, the US dollar's strength is far and…

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April 13, 2015
Economy / Stock Market

FactSet on Earnings

Here is the S&P 500's closing price, target price and analyst ratings from FactSet... Nothing new or unusual here.  A bunch of constructive to bullish analysts and a very few…

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April 2, 2015
NFTRH

Miners & Stock Market; Past Perspective

I am rummaging around early NFTRH editions looking for references to Larry Summers I made in Q4 2008 to go with a post at Biiwii.  In going through those crude…

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April 1, 2015
Economy

GDP Lame, Corporate Profits Decline & Bad Chicken

From the Commerce Department, GDP @ 2.2% and Corporate Profits declined in Q4, breaking a long trend up.  That is a major concern.  Here is a blurb from DoC (click…

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March 27, 2015
NFTRH Interim Updates

Gold Sector & Stock Market Snapshots

Gold Sector

Turning to the precious metals first, HUI made it to 175.62, which is a little lower than the ‘+/-‘ we have been tagging with the 180 target.  RSI held below 50 and while it could just be filling a little gap from last week, it does not look overly inspiring.  We continue to let those who obsess on the precious metals as if it is the only market on the planet micro manage this.  Nothing has changed yet, and that includes the fundamentals. There is no actionable bull signal beyond the bounce.  180 +/- remains the target for now, but this thing must get in gear quickly.

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March 27, 2015
NFTRH Interim Updates

Plans for S&P 500, Gold & Gold Miners

S&P 500

Per the simplified big picture daily, weekly and monthly charts of SPX first introduced 6 weeks ago in NFTRH 329, we have been managing potential downside targets of 2000 and 1900.

If SPX were to hit either of these targets it would not kill the bull market, especially if 2000 holds.  In that case it would be a normal, moderate and healthy correction.

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March 26, 2015
NFTRH Interim Updates

Detailed Post-FOMC Analysis

Post-FOMC The first line of the FOMC statement yesterday was what I assume they wanted us to pay the most attention to.  It was packaged with a view of moderate…

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March 19, 2015
NFTRH Interim Updates

Market Notes

Employment for February is +295,000 and unemployment is down to 5.5%.  The US dollar rocketed upward and more importantly, so too did short-term interest rates (esp. in relation to long-term…

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March 6, 2015
NFTRH Interim Updates

Market Update

Admin Notes Doing a freer flowing 'market update' segment mid-week works better for me than the more rigid ETF updates we had been doing and I hope it works better…

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February 25, 2015
Stock Market, US

Want to See a Bullish Chart?

Well here it is, the Russell 2000 Small Cap index.  We had been managing a Diamond pattern (consolidation, not necessarily continuation or reversal, see lower panel) by daily charts and…

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February 19, 2015
NFTRH Interim Updates

Market Update

For the 2nd week in a row I'd like to forgo the regular ETF update in favor of a more conversational 'market status' update.  We noted in NFTRH 329 that…

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February 11, 2015
Interest Rates

Risk ‘ON’

I have a short position against the S&P 500 and despite Friday's EoD reversal and yesterday's down day, as noted to subscribers in an update, I don't feel very good…

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February 10, 2015