For the 2nd week in a row I’d like to forgo the regular ETF update in favor of a more conversational ‘market status’ update. We noted in NFTRH 329 that the bulls had regained the edge despite the end of day reversal on Friday. Monday was another down day and still I felt the bulls were out front. Then came yesterday.
I took a small loss on my SQQQ position because this market had plenty of opportunity to drop at least to the consolidation ‘swing’ lows but yesterday it put on the bull instead. Can this be another head fake, a bull trap? Yes. But do we want to chase bull and bear traps around every other day? The thing did not go down, has leaned bullish since last week and yesterday helped the bull case even more.
Add in the targets we noted in NFTRH 329 for the SPX (2192 & 2370) and the RUT (1350) and well, at the very least bears go short at their own risk. Personally, if the market is going to be bullish I am going to be bullish.
At the very least, the bulls have the ball right now, not the bears.
The Russell 2000 turned down, held the Diamond and popped back above 1200. MACD is green and RSI is above 50. This is bullish unless and until bears put it below 1180. It only becomes flat out bearish below 1150.
SPX held the MA 50, has RSI above 50 and is about to turn MACD green. This was the index that was dwelling below the swing highs. It is not doing that at yesterday’s close.
NDX is still in consolidation, with MACD green and RSI 50+. Another one that had full license to drop if it so desired (it closed Monday below the MA 50). It did not desire.
Per a chart we reviewed previously, the SOX index did this. We noted that this was a Handle consolidation that should be watched for either a drop to the channel bottom or a break above the MA 50 and the top line. It chose the latter yesterday.
Euro 50 is fine above support.
The bull was ahead by a nose as the markets closed on a down note last Friday. So far this week, the lead has stretched. In the absence of an out of the blue reversal, the broad market is going bullish, including some global areas.
There is drama in Greece and Europe. That stuff is not fundamental to the dynamics that are making markets – especially the US – rise. Global policy making and global money flows are pushing stock markets, again, especially the US.
Barring a reversal (which, in a volatile and emotional environment as we have had, cannot be discounted) the bulls are in charge as of 8:57 US Eastern time on Wednesday morning.