The title of the update references ‘if’ you would short, because even if the market is going bearish, cash is position. Working against the short/bearish view is contrary bullish sentiment (over-bearish), the fact that an alarming news event is driving some of it and the simple fact that historically at least (last 3 instances), stocks don’t top into real bear markets until many months after … Continue reading NFTRH+; if you would short…
As a thought exploration evolving from the VIX pullback… If the VIX were to drop to an extreme test of its potential new uptrend, we’d be looking for the 19 area and/or a higher low to the last January low. Markets, when they get a bit in their mouth, often seem to push the limits in order to put the herds back to sleep (or … Continue reading NFTRH+; Rally/bounce targets
TSM moves higher, Semi sector toppy but intact In an NFTRH update on Monday I had expressed a view that the SOX index might have more downside as long as the US market correction persisted, but also that the US market correction was normal and within continuing uptrends and so, no shorting for this non-daytrader. Not unless it’s for strategic hedging or I get proper … Continue reading Taiwan Semiconductor breaks out
Just a moderate priority update, with picture of the US market leadership chain. SOX/NDX, NDX/SPX and SOX/SPX are all firm today and maintaining the ‘intact’ status noted in NFTRH 686 and previous. Continue reading NFTRH+; in-day market leadership update
NDX and SOX filler their upper gaps Ref. last Thursday’s… Not in love with these gaps While SPX and DJIA are still working on theirs, the market leader (Tech) and its leader (Semi) have filled their upper gaps. There are still lower gaps to be dealt with some day, but until this is a real and hysterical Fed-fear event that may come later. In order … Continue reading Two of four gaps filled
US stock market indexes sporting gaps Gaps don’t need to fill on any given time schedule, but unless they are pure breakaway gaps they will usually fill sooner or later. So, while we may look at these charts and be concerned about the gaps, you could also project a scenario where they don’t fill until the next major correction or bear market (hello 2022?). Anyway, … Continue reading Not in love with these gaps
The Semiconductor sector appears to be re-taking leadership The broad Semiconductor sector is hinting to take back its leadership over big Tech and possibly the broad SPX as well on the daily chart view. While a look inside the sector’s internals shows that two premier Semi Equipment companies, Applied Materials and Lam Research are constructive and not yet actionable with respect to leadership by companies … Continue reading Semiconductor sector leadership updated
Quick pics and brief comments. SPX recovers to near an all-time high after a sentiment micro-twitch, NDX ticks a new high and SOX recovers above the SMA 50, regardless of its internal divergences (e.g. Semi Equipment). The world is bouncing. Since this is occurring above the rising SMA 200 it is still technically intact, unattractive pattern notwithstanding. Commodities (DBC) are bouncing but still potentially in … Continue reading NFTRH+; Today’s market
As we ping back and forth between the summer cool down (w/ potential liquidation) and the view of a resumption of the inflation trades I want to make a point here that trends in US stock markets are intact. While I tried a short on the small caps and there are negative signs within the cycle leading Semiconductor sector, there is a reality still in … Continue reading NFTRH+; Not bearish
US stock market leadership is intact We noted in NFTRH that Semiconductor leadership was well intact, but overbought. That is being remedied now as SOX/NDX and SOX/SPX pull back. Within Semi, the premier Semi Equipment stock, LRCX, is still in leadership mode, which I see as a positive as well, because the Equipment companies supply the Fabs that make the chips. i.e. they anticipate demand. … Continue reading A Look Inside the US Stock Market
First, the VIX, which has gotten clobbered on whatever is making the markets feel good today. I added some VIXY back yesterday as a vol. hedge, but obviously did so too soon. Show biz. I am holding it pending the VIX filling its SMA 50 after a gap fill. SPX is showing something today. Per #627 we had anticipated a bounce to at least the … Continue reading NFTRH+; Updating Some Key Markets
A few pictures of upside gaps filling on various indexes, as we speculated might happen on the short-term. HUI is going for the gap just above 330. The keys to exiting the correction are the SMA 50 and October high. GLD filled last week’s gap down and has another gap just above. The key here is the SMA 50 and then the October high that … Continue reading NFTRH+; Gaps Filling, Parameters Noted
US markets are testing the short-term support zones as illustrated in NFTRH 625. SPX is settling into the first projected support zone at the EMA 20 and just above the rising SMA 50. It’s almost as if the market looked for and found an excuse (du jour in the media) to drop to and test this level yesterday. NDX dumped to its EMA 20 as … Continue reading NFTRH+; US Stock Market (daily TA)
Gold, silver and the miners are and have been in consolidation/correction. US stocks are and have been bullish but at high risk. Here’s the current technical situation using daily charts. Precious Metals Starting with HUI, here is the chart from NFTRH 624, as it was marked up then. Huey popped above the SMA 50, dropped below it, popped above it (so typical of this pogo … Continue reading NFTRH; Priority Update on Precious Metals & US Stocks
