silver

Technical Analysis

Big Picture Views

With all the hype and noise built in to daily and weekly market management, sometimes it is worthwhile to dial out, calm things down and touch base with markets on the big picture.  Here are views on various markets (with limited commentary) by way of some NFTRH monthly charts.

Let’s start with currencies, since they are a reflection upon global policy making, which has been unprecedented in its direct market interference over the last few years.

Nominal Charts – Currency

We noted the hot air patch in the Canada dollar last year.  I had thought CDW might stop and find support at 85, which is a measurement from the topping pattern; but so far, no dice.

cdw

Fellow commodity currency Aussie is at what should be a strong support zone.

xad

[edit]  evidently my uninformed use of stockcharts.com’s symbol for the Rupee is incorrect.  I have had input that this chart is an inverted view of Rupee-USD.  Looking into this.

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January 13, 2015
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Market Quick Check

Gold poked above the SMA 50 and 1200 level.  This is its minimum requirement to get bullish.  Above 1240 and then 1260 would be very constructive.  Gold has taken on…

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January 6, 2015
Sentiment & Psychology

Google Market Trends

Just FYI, a little exercise on some financial topics.  By Google Trends at least, the stage is setting up for a contrarian, counter-trend bounce in precious metals and commodities in…

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December 16, 2014
Precious Metals

Gold & Silver Today

[edit] okay now they are flirting with abnormal I know it sounds weird on a day when gold bugs are being scattered back down Hamburger Hill, but gold (GLD) is…

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December 15, 2014
Precious Metals

Silver vs. Gold

Just an FYI that silver is still leading gold on the short-term and the ratio is above the 50 day moving average.

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December 12, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Stock Market / Precious Metals

US Stock Market

After a whipsaw on Tuesday the market made a hard move down yesterday.  Amid degrading indicators like bond spreads and sentiment, the Dow and S&P 500 declined over the last 3 days from all time highs.

Our parameters between normal and abnormal are very tight.  Let’s check up on them.

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December 11, 2014
Commodities

Gold-Silver Ratio May be Setting Up Favorably

For some downtrodden items, that is.  A downturn in the GSR and its fellow horseman the USD could provide some relief for the markets that have done the most poorly…

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November 20, 2014
NFTRH

NFTRH 317 Out Now

Actually it was out much earlier but I had to get it in the can and run this morning. So now I am back and here to tell you that…

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November 16, 2014
Precious Metals

Gold and Silver CoT Reports

With what little bounce activity gold and silver had experienced by Tuesday (CoT cut off date), the data show a jump in large speculators' active bearishness and commercial entities longing…

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November 14, 2014
Notable Public Posts

Gold Sector Review

Originally posted at Biiwii.com; thought I’d pop it up here as well.

Below is a summary of some of the aspects we follow in NFTRH to gauge a future investment stance on the gold sector. It is much more complex than simply hearing dogma that seems to make sense and then holding on for dear life…

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November 13, 2014
Gold

Gold Sector Review…

What seems like an extensive review is really only the basics in the gold sector.  That is how involved the many disparate parts are and reflects the level of work…

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November 13, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Multi-Market Update

Well, here came the short covering rally in the precious metals.  By calling it that I don’t mean that it cannot turn into something more, but today was most assuredly driven by short covering as the US dollar unwound some of its speculative sponsorship.  One can assume that large speculators took it on the chin on both ends, in the USD and in gold/silver as the Commercial traders had been aligned increasingly bearish and bullish, respectively.

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October 6, 2014
Notable Public Posts

HUI, Gold & Silver; Fun With Monthly Charts

Outside of the sound practice that is physical gold ownership in a time of monetary gamesmanship, the precious metals sector is all about speculation, at least according to 9 out of 10 chart jockeys and momentum junkies micro managing every short-term twist and turn.

Indeed, NFTRH manages gold, silver and the gold stocks on down to the short-term views as well, but that is only because the long-term views have stated that this is a time to be paying attention.  Do we pay attention because we have waited so long to promote our orthodoxy and finally be right as gold bugs?  No.  We pay attention when a chart tells us to pay attention.

While we manage the shorter-term views (both macro fundamental and technical) rigorously in the weekly report and interim updates, here I’d like to dial out to the big monthly picture with 3 large (click to expand as needed) charts of HUI, Gold and Silver to see their stories, which are the reasons we are managing shorter-term views.

HUI Gold Bugs Index

hui

First HUI monthly reviews the warnings to the analysis from 2012 and 2013.  They were very clear and should have kept people out of much of harm’s way with respect to gold stock speculation.

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August 15, 2014