The US dollar and the Gold/Silver ratio are bulling together… And per the Seinfeld bad chicken episode, “that’s not gonna be good for anybody.” Here we see Uncle Buck (DXY) doing what he has been doing since he began diverging the inflation hysteria well over a year ago. And his fellow rider doing similar. For anyone new to this, the ratio of gold to silver … Continue reading 2 Horsemen of the (macro) Apocalypse ride on…
Just a quick FYI that the gap in gold and the implied gap in silver have filled. The chart shows GLD and SLV. I sold AEM earlier but may need to re-think that. If a short-term rally is going to happen it could well come from these oversold conditions and gap fills. If so, it may still not be ‘the’ bottom. But, week-to-week… Continue reading NFTRH+; gaps filled
If you are like me you may have had some measure of mental macro whipsaw recently as the short-term signals bounce from disinflationary/Goldilocks to inflationary and back again. Fairly annoying. But this set of indicators, the Gold/Silver ratio (GSR) combined with the US dollar index, beg a cautious stance on the inflated macro, including – if history is a guide – on gold stocks (which … Continue reading NFTRH+; a clear macro signal
A daily chart view for short-term reference. Gold has bounced to the SMA 50 and resistance associated with that area. Option 1: Bounce failure. Option 2: Break on through to the other side for a meeting with the SMA 200 at 1841. Silver has halted at the first resistance area, which includes the hard diving SMA 50. With the power of the recent negative sentiment … Continue reading NFTRH+; Gold and Silver daily chart technicals
FOMC came. FOMC laid a .75% egg. FOMC rode off into the sunset until September. Meanwhile, signs of global economic contraction continue to crop up as the Fed fights the last war. As repeatedly harped upon, contraction is the best backdrop for gold mining stocks because it pressures central banks to consider loose monetary policy, or at least to back off the hawk routine while … Continue reading NFTRH; The post-FOMC market situation, Gold and Silver
Gold thus far holds the support, which can be seen on a weekly chart per a July 21st update. Here is the updated daily for review. Silver is the precious metal we’ve been watching more closely due to its stellar (contrarian bullish) CoT situation and its status at clear long-term support. If we take it in a vacuum (i.e. we ignore the fact that there … Continue reading NFTRH+; Gold, Silver and big Tech
A very simple update. This morning in pre-market the precious metals were tanking. Now? Not so much. Gold slammed the next support level we have noted at around 1680 and reversed. It was not solid, no-brainer support but it was support nonetheless on the weekly chart. Silver slammed the important support area in the low 18s again and also reversed. The weekly chart shows what … Continue reading NFTRH+; Gold & Silver
Yesterday’s little contrary CPI bounce has failed as of pre-market this morning. Stocks (ES, NQ, Global) are down and base and precious metals are down as well. They of the contrary bullish CoT structures. Bond yields are on a small bounce and of course the star of our show, Uncle Buck is up again (DXY ticks a new high at 108.87). This is happening with … Continue reading NFTRH+; the favored plan lives
Metals Commitments of Traders are contrary bullish The gold price chart is looking bad technically. But the gold CoT alignment, especially where the little guy (blue) is concerned, is contrary bullish, or at least constructive. Charts from CotBase. Silver CoT is in great shape, while the silver price chart err… isn’t. There are long-term support levels (not shown on this chart) we are using, however, … Continue reading Bullish CoT data on precious and non-precious metals alike
I added SLV in after-hours based on Silver (futures, weekly chart) proximity to the clear support zone from 18 to 18.60. I prefer the metal to the miners at this time. Silver, if it moves, will move strongly enough for my taste. For another reference, here is the monthly chart we reviewed in the previous update. Close enough to take a shot, IMO. Continue reading NFTRH+; Silver (again)
The target for silver is 18.25 per NFTRH 709 and this post. Just a reminder as the seasonal (30yr average) becomes favorable while the inflation bugs have been selling the precious metals (selling silver at a time of waning inflation trades makes more sense than selling gold). CoT is very constructive, sentiment is in the dumps and clear support is at and around 18.25. If … Continue reading NFTRH+; Silver
This is how an inflation phase ends It’s called the bust that follows an inflated boom. The US dollar and Gold/Silver ratio traditionally ride together to bring it on. The current backdrop is as we’ve allowed for and even anticipated in NFTRH (against heavy cash I am positioned in the stuff that is not inflation-dependent, and it is working today). It’s a whiff of ‘Goldilocks’ … Continue reading US dollar & Gold/Silver ratio
The message is anti-inflationary Conveniently, with FOMC coming up on July 27th, inflation signals continue to unwind. Hmmm, and right into what on average is a seasonal low in the precious metals in July. I am holding DUST as a short against the gold miners but want to make sure I am not feeling too self-congratulatory about it [edit: I shook myself out for a … Continue reading Silver/Gold ratio also on message [w/ edit]
Back to the normal format after getting some important details and distinctions worked out in last week’s more talkative edition. NFTRH 711, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a … Continue reading NFTRH 711, out now
