[edit] It should be noted that these being big picture charts, the extreme signal – even if it is to play out in favor of gold relative to silver – could persist for a while. We’re on the cusp of Santa, after all.
In today’s notes a chart of the Gold/Silver ratio was presented, along with a possible scenario in light of the bond market’s current signals, per an earlier NFTRH+ update.
Is Gary thinking too much? I dunno. But I’d rather he think too much than be asleep at the switch. So let’s dial in a little closer to what I am thinking about. Despite a now bullish big picture view of silver, my bias is and has since 2002 been as a gold bug, not a silver bug. So that is also a consideration.
Also considering we have not yet formally entered the inflationary macro (ref. update linked above), I – a man who stares at charts – find the comparison between the current nose-dive in the Gold/Silver ratio and the nose-dive in the Silver/Gold ratio last spring to be interesting, to say the least.
Back then the SGR dive-bombed prior to stabilizing and ramming upward into the macro “trade” we were well prepared for. Well, I am trying to be prepared once again going in the other, more macro bearish direction. Remember, we are still in the “interim” to any new inflation trade that may come along in 2026.
I do not wish to scare people out of “invested” positions. I am noting what I see in the market’s internals. It’s a man staring at charts, for sure. But in consideration of the theme of the previous NFTRH+ update, it’s also got some rationale, macro-fundamentally as well.
A final thought. While both gold and silver are very overbought on the long-term (monthly) charts, Gold/Silver is becoming quite oversold. So for now, on a risk/reward basis, I favor gold over silver and gold stocks over silver stocks.
