I would like to thank a distinguished subscriber, Michael Pollaro, whom you may recall from the Forbes Contrarian Take column of yore, for a heads-up to this X post about silver by @abccampbell. Michael sent it to me after reading the opening segment of NFTRH 895, with its short-term caution about the silver price.
When a macro guy like me talks about “fundamentals”, the talk is of general industrial use, general global supply/demand and most importantly, monetary and fiscal policy. The author of the post digs deep, including the into the short-term risks (tax loss selling, margin requirements, etc.).
What I find interesting is that his view distills down to mine. In my much more general macro view the silver price is quite vulnerable in the near-term (ref. yesterday’s hard hit), but in the longer-term in this “new macro”, it remains bullish.
One risk I did not see mentioned is more of a broad macro one. That would be the theoretical unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade, to the extent it is still a ‘thing’. If the YCT unwinds and if it is heavy enough, it would clobber most assets/markets. But let’s keep that in the theoretical realm for now, until/unless the Yen starts rising under pressure of rising Japan yields.
I would suggest reading the whole post per the link above. Meanwhile, here is the bottom line, per the author:
