Excerpted from this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 747, a look at two currently positive macro market signals. When they turn it will be time for…
Junk bond ETF outperforms both Treasury and 'investment grade' (IG) bonds As would be expected, nominal junk (HYG) is pretty bearish along with the rest of cyclical/risk 'on' markets. It's…
High Yield spreads are elevating And the message is not a happy one for the risk 'on' world, which is most of the investing world. Combine it with Gold/Silver, Gold/Copper…
High Yield credit spread eases On March 15 we noted that High Yield option adjusted spreads were rising, which was a distinct economic/financial negative if it were to continue. It…
Message from Junk Bonds is still risk 'on' People touting bearish media headlines (like the Omicron/Fed tapering 1-2 punch) may be reinforcing the herd's tendency to react rather than think,…
The Fed, like the rest of us, is being directed by markets As shown in yesterday's post the Fed is being directed in large part by the 2yr Treasury yield,…
The September-October stock market correction is thus far normal It's normal that... After a summer of excessive risk taking and speculation the stock market would take a correction in September…
Nominal Junk Bonds (HYG) show risk (and speculation) 'on'... With a thus far small easing of the speculative froth lately, Junk Bond indicators continue to not yet show cracks in…
Junk bonds have not yet cracked as speculation continues The stock market is probably not going to crack until the ultimate sign of rampant speculation cracks. That would be Junk…
This article calls junk bonds a canary in a coal mine. Analysts often view ructions in the high-yield, or “junk-bond,” market as a canary in the coal mine, or an…
Any bearish phase in the broad market would be suspect without junk bonds also going bearish. The top panel is nominal HYG (Junk). The middle is HYG/TLT (Junk/Treasury) and the…
Just as the larger Q4 2019 inflation trade failed miserably, this one is starting to pop its seams and come apart. At least according to these inflation and speculation gauges.…
Dividend unadjusted HYG broke down a few days ago and for months now we've been noting the breakdowns vs. Treasury and Investment Grade. But today divy adjusted HYG has slipped…
From NFTRH 537's Market Internals segment... "Who's leading you astray, nominal Junk or its hidden bearish indicators?" Junk has since made a new high. Whee, party on Garth! Junk/Investment Grade…