indicators

Speculative Inflation bounce now suspect

Just as the larger Q4 2019 inflation trade failed miserably, this one is starting to pop its seams and come apart. At least according to these inflation and speculation gauges.

TIP/IEF is still relatively elevated but TIP/TLT, which is the ratio I had previously overlaid w/ SPX (turned out to be a good warning of the Q4 reflation failure) is not pleasant at all for the inflated mess that casino patrons are reveling in now.

tip tlt ratio

Junk bonds are still very elevated as patrons fall into the punch just as the Fed appears to wish, per its actions. But Junk/Treasury can be watched closely, as a continued pullback would also be a warning.

junk bonds

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