Semiconductor sector leadership updated

The Semiconductor sector appears to be re-taking leadership The broad Semiconductor sector is hinting to take back its leadership over big Tech and possibly the broad SPX as well on the daily chart view. While a look inside the sector’s internals shows that two premier Semi Equipment companies, Applied Materials and Lam Research are constructive and not yet actionable with respect to leadership by companies … Continue reading Semiconductor sector leadership updated

Sad Stories: 3 Recent Market Pumps

The tradition is as old as Wall Street itself, I’d think. In my experience it goes back to the Tech/Internet bubble, proceeds on through the Uranium bubble, Oil bubble and Silver bubble. Indeed, today we have the term “Everything Bubble” in honor of the 24/7, 365 asset pumping promoted by US and global Central Banks. But this post deals with three discrete sector situations where … Continue reading Sad Stories: 3 Recent Market Pumps

alice

NFTRH; The Latest Word on the Semi Equipment Cycle (high priority)

When we were originally alerted to the coming slowdown in Semi Equipment, my industry contact had been working to a Q4 2018 to Q1 2019 game plan for cyclical recovery. Now it seems this may have been pushed out by a quarter, at least. His words exactly… Hi Gary, We see business off about 25-30% from the high over the past year. I suspect it … Continue reading NFTRH; The Latest Word on the Semi Equipment Cycle (high priority)

Semi Sector 9+ Months On…

On November 21, 2017 we noted… Semi Equipment Spending Record, 2018 Growth, But… With the key being the “but… “ Per that post… What got me checking into the SEMI data is a goofy MarketWatch article featuring a fund manager who owns the FAANG type stocks at 30 multiples, but has found relative value in AMAT and LRCX, the two Semiconductor Equipment stocks that I … Continue reading Semi Sector 9+ Months On…

Semi Sector: A Warning or a Buy?

We began tracking this negative divergence in NFTRH last year as the leadership of two premier Semi Equipment companies began to decelerate vs. the broad sector. Over time the ugly patterns became even uglier with breakdowns to new lows. This chart shows that ugliness but more importantly it tries to illustrate AMAT & LRCX as leading indicators for the broad markets. In 2013 it was … Continue reading Semi Sector: A Warning or a Buy?

Mutant Canaries Chirping in Semi Sector?

I am having trouble logging into Fidelity and thus managing my own affairs, so time is limited and this post contains no fundamental facts to back up the title other than the 60 min. charts of our original Semiconductor Equipment canaries in the coal mine, LRCX and AMAT, which are getting hammered this morning. Could this canary be 1000 lbs. overweight, have the ability to … Continue reading Mutant Canaries Chirping in Semi Sector?

Semi Equipment Spending Record, 2018 Growth, But…

What got me checking into the SEMI data is a goofy MarketWatch article featuring a fund manager who owns the FAANG type stocks at 30 multiples, but has found relative value in AMAT and LRCX, the two Semiconductor Equipment stocks that I was bullish on 1.5 years ago. I know, I know… I sold too soon and that is my issue and I have to … Continue reading Semi Equipment Spending Record, 2018 Growth, But…

Semi Equipment Company, AMAT: Record Earnings

While some might want us to focus solely on the big layoff at Cisco, why don’t we stay with what is actually happening.  What is actually happening is that there are pockets of weakness and pockets of strength, throughout the economy.  Cisco for example, cites the Brexit disturbance for some of its issues.  It is more of a lagging, consumer-direct oriented company after all. Applied … Continue reading Semi Equipment Company, AMAT: Record Earnings

nftrh plus

NFTRH+; AMAT

A semi ‘+’ update (pun completely unintended) on Applied Materials being sent to all subscribers (as opposed to email opt-ins) due to our macro theme developing in the Semi Equipment sector.

With the disclaimer that this is a noisy week and I do not trust the broad market’s short-term price signals, I want to stick 100% with the technicals on the Semi Equipment sector to go with the current bullish (fundamental) forward view.  As such, here is AMAT, a headline equipment company which, you may recall, issued a stellar quarterly release several weeks ago that we combined with early Book-to-Bill signals to begin developing our view.

Continue reading “NFTRH+; AMAT”

nftrh plus

NFTRH+; Applied Materials (AMAT)

These bottom feeder plays can be difficult because they do not have established trends like momentum plays.  Unfortunately, a momo is not who I am.  A bottom feeder is who I am and so those are the things I look for.  Frequent traders should be aware that a bottom feed is not necessarily right for their purposes. Preamble behind us, we can now move on.  … Continue reading NFTRH+; Applied Materials (AMAT)