I try to have a lot of different ways of looking at the macro backdrop because if enough of them imply the same thing then a strong probabilities-based thesis can…
He's the one in the middle, looking like he's bracing for something... The 10yr yield has officially hit 2.9% today (the 30yr still has a bit of headroom to 3.3%).…
All according to plan, I might add. Well, the "sending markets tumbling" part is its own animal. But as far as inflation fears and Treasury bond yields go, we're on…
Over and over again I've been making goofy headlines about the Amigos, the 3 macro riders who will reach (or abort) their respective destinations, at which point the macro is…
Our theme is that Trump and the Republicans took over with fiscally driven inflation policy from Obama and the Fed's monetarily driven inflation policy. Within this, the Fed makes its…
The inflationary theme for the first half of 2018 is getting off to a good start. Well, it has actually been going for a while now, but Day 1, 2018…
Last summer I could do no wrong. Everything was working and making sense. Then about the time that the 10yr yield began the post-September jigsaw consolidation I turned into a…
The TIP/IEF 'inflation gauge' is still motoring upward after breaking above the SMA 200. If this turns the 200 up along with the MA 50 it could indicate a mini…
[edit] This article ultimately leans toward the view that the reasons for a rising curve will be inflationary. But I woke up in the middle of the night and my…
I make fun of the MSM, including Bloomy, for its often sensational headlines and click-baiting content... R.I.P. Bond Bull!!!! ...but Bloomberg especially has a lot of useful content and quality…
On February 27 we had a post highlighting Keith Weiner's positive fundamental view for gold and silver and his target for the gold-silver ratio. As noted in the post, "the…
Tell me, who is wrong on inflation, Commodities or Treasury bonds? They will not remain under pressure together, as they have been this week, for long. This is the kind…
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I used to make fun of the FOMC rate hike "decision" language in the mainstream media because under the Obama administration and its economic policies overseen by the Fed's monetary…
I am posting this article written pre-NFTRH, in 2004 (but since destroyed on the server when I accidentally blew up Biiwii.com's database last year).* This is the version from my…