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Interest Rates / Macro Data

Yield Curve Today

Once again, yields down, curve up.  Risk obviously... 'OFF'. Bigger picture, it's in a down trend until it isn't.  Here's the weekly view at yesterday's close.

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January 13, 2015
Technical Analysis

Big Picture Views

With all the hype and noise built in to daily and weekly market management, sometimes it is worthwhile to dial out, calm things down and touch base with markets on the big picture.  Here are views on various markets (with limited commentary) by way of some NFTRH monthly charts.

Let’s start with currencies, since they are a reflection upon global policy making, which has been unprecedented in its direct market interference over the last few years.

Nominal Charts – Currency

We noted the hot air patch in the Canada dollar last year.  I had thought CDW might stop and find support at 85, which is a measurement from the topping pattern; but so far, no dice.

cdw

Fellow commodity currency Aussie is at what should be a strong support zone.

xad

[edit]  evidently my uninformed use of stockcharts.com’s symbol for the Rupee is incorrect.  I have had input that this chart is an inverted view of Rupee-USD.  Looking into this.

(more…)

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January 13, 2015
Interest Rates

Yield Curve Today

The curve is rising again, with nominal maturities dropping.  A risk 'OFF' alignment and if this keeps up and one day becomes a trend, it'll be pleasurable for gold. Indeed,…

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January 12, 2015
Stock Market, US

SPY Gap Closed

So if you are a bull, you are buying here... right?  Are you a bull? I ask that seriously, because I myself am not sure at the moment what I…

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January 12, 2015
NFTRH

NFTRH 325 Out Now

On a weekend where I took my daughter to Boston for two nights of voice coaching/recording, needed to watch the Patriots game (on DVR) and a late Rangers game, on…

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January 11, 2015
Stock Market, US

Gappy

I have gone mostly sidelines with the seasonal stock market bounce stuff, but also am not short a single thing.  With that disclosed, here is a gappy view of the…

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January 9, 2015
Interest Rates / Market Indicators

Yield Curve Today

The 10→5→2 yield spread is up big today with all durations dropping.  Not a risk 'ON' alignment at all. For perspective, here is what the 30 vs. the 5 year…

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January 9, 2015
Economy

‘Jobs’ +252,000 in December

+252,000 vs. 230,000 expected and unemployment drops to 5.6%. From BLS (full report here): Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 252,000 in December, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.6…

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January 9, 2015
Stock Market, US

‘V’ Bounce, Part 3?

In September we managed an over bought, over loved and over obsessed upon stock market into October's decline.  That decline was simply a sentiment thing.  Sentiment needed to be re-set…

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January 8, 2015
Energy

If Oil is Going to Bounce

If Crude oil is going to bounce, it might think about doing it now.  The trend line from 1999 is just the latest candidate to try to arrest the impulsive…

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January 7, 2015
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Key ETF Charts

A snapshot of current daily technicals…

Precious Metals

GLD broke back above the first key support level.  120-122 will be a big test.  A rise above 120 would put in a short-term higher high to go with the recent higher low.  114 is where key support begins.

gld

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January 7, 2015
Stock Market, US

Gappy & Happy

I am happy because my cute headline on New Year's Day worked out.  I am going to be happier with the gap fills if markets hold support and turn back…

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January 6, 2015
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; HUI Daily Chart Status

Let's keep it simple.  The gold stock sector is acting very nicely as an anti-market to everything else that is going down of late.  It is a microcosm of the…

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January 6, 2015
Stock Market, US

Gappy New Year, Part 3

In part 1 we noted the gaps to start 2015 that were likely to fill, and in part 2 we updated the progress.  Part 3 will close the series because…

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January 6, 2015