After FOMC Nothingburger SPX still on plan

The US stock market will make an up or down decision on the very short-term while the larger relief rally is still intact

Yesterday as they bulled the markets on the November CPI report’s disinflationary whiff (ha ha), I noted my short positions against SPX and DJIA and how the sentiment relief party may have been ready to resume. Well, not so fast.

A reversal yesterday saw SPX close below the SMA 200 once again and today the market’s little rally reversed after the eggheads rendered their well telegraphed decision. .5% was in the bag as we’ve noted.

So the picture – a moving target obviously subject to change/adjustment – is this…

  1. Either pull back hard in the micro-term to fill the lower gap and then rally (favored) or keep going down (not favored), or…
  2. Hold above 3900 and then set about finishing the bear market rally into Q1, and…
  3. At the next peak in over-bullish sentiment set about resuming the bear market in stocks (favored) or breaking the bear by taking out the key level noted in the post linked above (not favored).

S&P 500 (spx) daily chart

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This Post Has 2 Comments

  1. MikeC

    We are putting your favored view to the test. Seems SPX has pretty much just filled that gap!

    1. Gary

      Yup. As such, I covered shorts on SPX and DJIA.

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