US stock market (SPX daily chart) heads for projected bear rally extremes
Frankly, this is 100% on plan for the Q4-Q1 party, but I did not have a clear view on which gaps were going to get filled first, the upper or the lower (per the SPX daily chart below, which has been our guide in NFTRH each week). Hence my hedging, which I am still holding against SPX and DJIA as they are not doing much damage to an overall very green portfolio today.
So let’s view the lower gap as a future objective for when the bear market rally fails. Meanwhile, regardless of whether or not that downside gap would fill in the short-term, we have planned for a rally vigorous enough to fill the upper gaps, get everyone dropping into the disinflationary punch bowl and then… well, you know.
That is the operating plan; Q4-Q1 bull and then a resumed stock market bear. Taking out the August high would very much pressure that outlook in favor of something much sunnier, like the bear market’s end. But for now… Beuller? Yes, on plan.
Side note: There is another option, also not likely to be pleasant for today’s party-goers. That is a resumed and intensifying inflation view. In other words an inflation that goes to the party stag, and eats the economy that way. One interpretation of dynamics in the Treasury yield Continuum allows for that. In fact, that is a major implication. But at this time the other view is favored in the intermediate-term by a fairly wide margin.
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