Precious & industrial metals seasonal (from NFTRH 695)

The bullish window (on average) is closing for metals

Of these metals I hold gold (not in ‘paper’ form) and silver, palladium and platinum (in paper form) and copper (in my walls). Is it different this time or will the seasonal average exert for some or all of these metals? There sure is a case to be made for ‘different this time’, given the intensifying global geopolitical mess.

Here’s how NFTRH 695 viewed the seasonal aspect last weekend before moving on to technical analysis of all of these metals, plus uranium.

Metals & Uranium (NFTRH 695 excerpt)

Here let’s cover both the cyclical (Cu, Pd, Ni, u3o8, etc.) and the counter-cyclical (e.g. Au and as a tag along, Ag). Inflation expectations clung to life last week with the war disruption playing into the story of inelastic demand vs. finite supply of necessary commodities. While they got corrected to end the week Gold, Silver, Palladium, Platinum, Nickel and others benefited for varying reasons in the face of Russia/Ukraine.

Let’s first update seasonal averages as we are well along in that window from when we first noted it at the beginning of the year per the graphs from NFTRH 687 (Jan. 2nd). The red arrows on Au, Ag and Pt indicate that if the seasonal holds true (never take a seasonal average as gospel, as it can and will vary year to year) indicate highs prior to multi-week corrections before gold bottoms for the year, silver spikes and fails into summer, and platinum tops. Palladium and copper have a little more meat left on the seasonal bone.

Of course, this year is a very particular year with the dual disruptions of war and a heretofore hawking Fed. Gold, for example, has been through 1.5 years of correction coming out of another major macro disruption, the emotional flash points of the pandemic. Let’s just say that where physical gold is concerned I’ll keep sleeping soundly.

Silver is and always has been of less interest to me because I do not for one minute believe the hype that silver promoters assign to it. It’s part precious metal, part industrial metal and is often a byproduct of mining other metals. It’s fine, of value and probably going to go higher in the years to come, but despite the new seasonal high due in the summer, I’ll continue to keep it far secondary to gold. Especially since late spring/early summer tends to really bring the pain.

As for platinum and palladium, the latter has a little more time, seasonally, and then a long slide begins. Generally, they are all suspect to negative for the rest of the year after the seasonal window that opened the year closes. The exception being gold, which takes a correction now and then stabilizes before bottoming in July and rallying to end the year.

Again, seasonal… meet grain of salt. But it is a factor to consider, especially since they did well to our seasonal script [by rising] to this point. Why not the same for points going forward?

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