Whip inflation now!
The Fed really did not like the scrutiny it came under in 2021 after 2020’s balls out inflationary action. We know this by early bird hawk figurehead James Bullard having been trotted out quite a while ago and various Fed heads (including the head Fed head, Mr. Powell) ruminating on inflation ever since. This is one cynical inflator and it appears they were so sensitive to the likes of…
…that they could not wait for the 30yr yield to ping the limiter this time before putting on the brakes (as the inverted H&S theme starts to get ruined).
Of course there are other ways to measure inflation, and the public worry noted in the Zero Hedge graphic above was also indicative of those ramping inflation expectations. Here is the St. Louis Fed’s view of it, with my assumption edited in.
And so now the media, which reaffirmed the inflationary mindset every step of the way up will now do its job and guide us back down again, every step of the way.
It’s a major shift, you know. Major Major! Bonus points for the reference (Robert, I know you’ve got it).
The media does its job, which is to alarm you and harvest your eyeballs about what is going on at this moment. It will report to you the present because that is what the media (well, the relatively reputable media anyway) are; reporters. There is little looking ahead. Just a story about what is happening now.
Effective looking ahead comes from places like contrarian viewpoints…
But now the work comes into play once again about what is ahead. Everybody long since knows about the inflation. Now everybody is coming know that the Fed wants to stop the inflation, or more accurately, the inflationary mindset of the public. What we (admittedly including me) do not know is what form the macro ahead will take. Options were noted in this post about the yield curve.
The gateway to 2022 will require ongoing work to get it right with a cynical, self-conscious Fed in play.
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