Everybody (including me) is watching the 10-2 yield curve. While the media and mainstream analysts make a big deal about its proximity to inversion that is not the important point. It is a change to steepening that would bring the macro changes. 10-2 is wallowing along, not flattening further but also not steepening over the last 2 months.
But get a load of the 30yr minus the 5yr yield, which has been steepening since July.
Okay, so does this have any meaning for the stock market? Well, the long-term chart sure does think so. If the move since July is just Memorex, move along because there is nothing to see here (as in 2015). But if the move is real, it could be quite a different story.
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