alice

NFTRH; Updating the 2000 SPX/HUI Comp Analog (high priority)

I did not get a chance to include this in NFTRH 537. So here it is by update.

After the initial bear signal for stocks (bull signal for the miners) in 2000, which clearly sent SPX technically bearish (yellow shaded zone) SPX did put on a rally of around 10% in January of 2001. During that rally HUI held its ground.

spx & hui 2001

Currently SPX is putting on a much bigger rebound, percentage-wise. But it also put on a more intense decline preceding the bounce. The relief rally always was going to be powerful whenever it would come. We knew and prepared for that in December.

spx & hui 2019

The more important point is that as in Q1 2001, SPX is making a significant test of the technical breakdown below the SMA 200. In 2001 this test was the back breaker for the stock market and confirmation of a gold stock bull market.

That does not mean SPX has to fail, but it does mean that the 2000-2001 analog is still in play. You can see why I have put so much emphasis on the nature of the stock market relief rally.

I am holding miners pretty tight and would probably add if the stock market breaks down (esp. if the miners also get whacked). But I tell you again that there is no perma-goldbug managing this service. If the stock market somehow re-bulls, we will need to face that reality and adjust accordingly.