Chirp Chirp, Chirp Chirp… Silence?

The canary chirped in 2013 as its equipment sector ramped up its bookings and we kept up with the bullish data every step of the way after that with updates like this one.

Semi Sector & Stock Market (2014)

The canary chirped again, as we noted amid much resistance if not outright contempt (this is when a supposed tech “expert” was held up in stern refutation of my stance, by a former subscriber whose trusted experts were then bullish gold and bearish Semi *).

AMAT Chirps, b2b Ramps, Yellen Hawks and Gold’s Fundamentals Erode (2016)

Then in November 2017 it was time to begin a new narrative as the MSM pumped a fund manager who, though bullish the FANGs, thought he’d found some great relative value for 2018 in the Semi sector. The link below clearly refutes that and gives reason to believe that these goofy troubadours in the MSM are going to lead a lot of new market participants to slaughter.

Semi Equipment Spending Record, 2018 Growth, But…

semi

The lambs for slaughter are Mom & Pop, who are in da house, after all (courtesy of Sentimentrader)…

households

So here is the leader’s leader (the progression being SOX → NDX → SPX), which began abdicating leadership right around the time of the post linked directly above. The green shaded area was the time we (NFTRH) were noting real value in the Semi sector, unlike the imagined value dreamed up in the MSM a few weeks ago. The red shaded area is when I thought it got too frothy. Silly me.

sox, ndx

The bottom line though, is that just as Semi, and in particular Semi equipment was an early cyclical leader to the happy stuff that Mom & Pop are celebrating now it is also a cyclical leader going the other way. Chirp chirp, chirp chirp… silence?

* After a year of bullish reinforcement the expert then became constructive on the Semi Equipment sector.

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