Dow is up solidly today, but this is only bouncing it to the broken 50 day moving averages.
SPX is up a smaller amount, which makes sense since it was not as far below its MA 50’s as the Dow. As such, I suspect these two could be testing a breakdown. A hold below the MA 50’s keeps these indexes as candidates for the summer correction that I had thought might visit by now.
NDX is fine and indeed could be in an ascending triangle. If that is the case and there is some near-term disturbance in markets NDX can decline to just above 4400 and still keep that bullish possibility in play.
SOX is taking a hit today I believe due to some bad PC projections from Micron and a knock on to Intel. Some chip makers that have little to do with PC’s are getting whacked in sympathy, and I find that interesting and possibly a future opportunity. However, tuning out that noise, SOX could be losing support. The next key area would be the rising MA 200 near 680.
Internets are declining from the highs and look to have support at around 300.
Russell 2000 is taking a normal looking decline. Good support begins at around 1260.
Bank Index is fine and continues to target 85 (pending the interest rate view, which targets 3.6%+ on the 30 year). Meanwhile, MACD is rolling a bit. Good support is in the 76 to 77 area.
Bottom Line
Some of the market’s leaders are suspect for the very short-term and the Dow and SPX are retesting MA 50 breakdowns.
This is all in service to the would-be summer correction we have anticipated, but thus far been denied. A shakeout would be normal but as yet there are few technical signs that anything serious is developing.
