Mark Hulbert’s HNNSI (data compiled from Nasdaq oriented market timers) shows that sentiment among these timers was not indicative of a top as it had been fading the rally into the recent interim top.
Contrast the HNNSI’s recent behavior with what happened as the 2000-2002 bear market was beginning — at the top of the Internet bubble. Three weeks after the Nasdaq COMP, +0.52% hit a record high on March 10, 2000, the index was more than 18% lower — a decline that was almost big enough to satisfy the unofficial definition of a bear market.
And, yet, the HNNSI over those three weeks actually rose.
So he is talking about a major top vs. an interim top and I tend to agree that the potential is there that this market may not have seen its ultimate highs yet. But regardless of what his Nasdaq newsletter writers were doing recently, other sentiment work we did in NFTRH showed a hideously unhealthy (over bullish) sentiment backdrop at the end of last week.
With the technical hit the market took earlier this week I became bearish for an interim corrective phase, and per this now public NFTRH+ post, shorted the SPY right at yesterday’s highs. Even if it loses, it will have been worth the try because the parameter was very tight, with a stop loss above 206.
Ideally, I’d like to see downside resumption. Then we’ll entertain thoughts of Santa rallies, January effects, etc. But there was a short-term sentiment issue that needed to be cleared, despite what the average Nasdaq timer is doing.