Monthly Archives: June 2014

Notable Public Posts

Who Are Those Guys?

As the silver CoT report data systematically, almost robotically degraded into the September 2012 top (despite the seemingly bullish coming of QE3) NFTRH used to ask week after week “Who are those guys?” doing its best Butch Cassidy while evaluating the gathering short interest.

Below is the CoT graph from NFTRH 203 dated September 9, 2012.  Week after week ‘those guys’ were ganging up on silver and we all know what soon happened; a harsh bear market down leg for the precious metals.

(more…)

Comments Off on Who Are Those Guys?
June 30, 2014
Notable Public Posts

Gold’s Value is Not About Currency Collapse

This article at Hard Assets Investor talks about Jeff Gunlach’s bullish gold call for 2014 and uses Dylan Grice’s 2012 call as an example of how the end of the world (i.e. gold’s safe haven value) can be put on hold indefinitely.

Is Jeff Gundlach’s Bullish Gold Call Too Early?

So is Gundlach wrong today? Grice wasn’t necessarily wrong in 2012. What he called “the largest credit inflation in financial history, a credit hyperinflation” has instead rolled on…taking asset prices higher and crushing interest rates. But it hasn’t, as yet, hit the value of money itself.

Nor will it hit the value of money, especially the US dollar, until all confidence is lost in the system.  We are about a million miles away from that condition right now (see second chart below).  Confidence will be lost first in the assets that are benefiting from the inflation – like stocks, so strategically at the heart of the wealth effect that policy makers are trying to stimulate – and then in policy makers themselves.  Then we’d have a big bull market in gold for all to see.

(more…)

Comments Off on Gold’s Value is Not About Currency Collapse
June 27, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Key ETF Charts

A snapshot of the current daily chart technical status of several ETFs…

GLD is bullish but in the equivalent resistance zone as noted for gold in NFTRH 296.  MACD and RSI positive, with RSI close to over bought.  Key support is at the MA 50 and 200.

(more…)

Comments Off on NFTRH; Key ETF Charts
June 26, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates / NFTRH+

NFTRH+; CTRL

I am taking profit (+8% from NFTRH+ highlight) on the most recent idea, Control4 (CTRL).  The measured target is higher and others may want to go for it.  I want…

Comments Off on NFTRH+; CTRL
June 25, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Gold Stock Pullback Strategy

The gold stock sector is pulling back today after HUI made a new recovery high of 242.53, just below our anticipated strong resistance zone of 245 to 250.  Hopefully, traders have been taking some profit.  What comes next for gold stock players is a game plan…

(more…)

Comments Off on NFTRH; Gold Stock Pullback Strategy
June 24, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Gold Funda’s & More TA

Bloomberg headline:

Jobless Claims Drop as US Consumers Gain Confidence

Economic deceleration is sure not on the front burner.  Yet the US continues to try to inflate, as does a good portion of the developed world.  Questions include… will we get rising inflation concerns and will this inflation and precious metals bounce foretell economic drudgery (or worse) to come?  In 2000 when the great stock bull blew out and the gold bull began, things were about as good as they get for the economy.

(more…)

Comments Off on NFTRH; Gold Funda’s & More TA
June 19, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Precious Metals

Silver is continuing its breakout on the weekly chart (ref. the comparison to the CCI index in 2013).  Silver vs. gold is continuing upward (a good sector leadership indication) but is getting very over bought now (traders be aware).  Gold is breaking through its 50 and 200 day moving averages and approaching the key ’round number’ resistance around 1300 that we have been noting.

(more…)

Comments Off on NFTRH; Precious Metals
June 19, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates / NFTRH+

NFTRH+; Control4 (CTRL)

Within the context of a potential market blow off scenario that Fed policy seems bent on instigating, we continue to look for candidates that have not yet moved aggressively.  On that note, CTRL, which can claim some of the ‘Internet of Things’ hype (iOt, another hype flavor added to last year’s 3D Printing/Additive Manufacturing?) in the home automation space.

(more…)

Comments Off on NFTRH+; Control4 (CTRL)
June 19, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Iraq, the New Ukraine?

From Bloomberg:

“U.S. stocks retreated, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index falling a third day, as airline stocks tumbled after escalating violence in Iraq pushed oil prices higher while data on retail sales and jobs missed estimates.”

(more…)

Comments Off on NFTRH; Iraq, the New Ukraine?
June 12, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; GDX Weekly Chart Status, Targets & Resistance

GDX is reviewed from a bigger picture weekly view after holding its ‘HUI 205’ parameter of 22 as support.  This is defined as the bottom of a theoretical right side shoulder to a long potential Inverted Head & Shoulders bottoming pattern that is now about a year old.

(more…)

Comments Off on NFTRH; GDX Weekly Chart Status, Targets & Resistance
June 12, 2014
Notable Public Posts

ZIRP Gains More Attention

We have been talking about how there had been no bubble in US stocks and how the economy is doing just fine.  We have also been talking about how the bubble is in policy and that the economy and stock bull market have been created – yes, like Frankenstein’s monster once again – out of this policy bubble.

Enter economist Joseph LaVorgna of Deutche Bank…  Fed needs to start raising rates, top forecaster says.

Will wonders never cease?  As you may know, I read the financial MSM to get a feel for what the casual market participant is reading, what the majority is being told is the truth.  Usually it is some combo of self-promoters and agenda (sometimes political) driven bulls and bears.

(more…)

Comments Off on ZIRP Gains More Attention
June 12, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; GDXJ vs. GDX

A picture of GDXJ vs. GDX to go with this morning's ETF update. GDXJ leads the rallies and in breaking above the moving averages yesterday and today, it is leading…

Comments Off on NFTRH; GDXJ vs. GDX
June 11, 2014