Who Are Those Guys?

As the silver CoT report data systematically, almost robotically degraded into the September 2012 top (despite the seemingly bullish coming of QE3) NFTRH used to ask week after week “Who are those guys?” doing its best Butch Cassidy while evaluating the gathering short interest.

Below is the CoT graph from NFTRH 203 dated September 9, 2012.  Week after week ‘those guys’ were ganging up on silver and we all know what soon happened; a harsh bear market down leg for the precious metals.

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Gold’s Value is Not About Currency Collapse

This article at Hard Assets Investor talks about Jeff Gunlach’s bullish gold call for 2014 and uses Dylan Grice’s 2012 call as an example of how the end of the world (i.e. gold’s safe haven value) can be put on hold indefinitely.

Is Jeff Gundlach’s Bullish Gold Call Too Early?

So is Gundlach wrong today? Grice wasn’t necessarily wrong in 2012. What he called “the largest credit inflation in financial history, a credit hyperinflation” has instead rolled on…taking asset prices higher and crushing interest rates. But it hasn’t, as yet, hit the value of money itself.

Nor will it hit the value of money, especially the US dollar, until all confidence is lost in the system.  We are about a million miles away from that condition right now (see second chart below).  Confidence will be lost first in the assets that are benefiting from the inflation – like stocks, so strategically at the heart of the wealth effect that policy makers are trying to stimulate – and then in policy makers themselves.  Then we’d have a big bull market in gold for all to see.

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NFTRH+; CTRL

I am taking profit (+8% from NFTRH+ highlight) on the most recent idea, Control4 (CTRL).  The measured target is higher and others may want to go for it.  I want profit. I do this because as noted in the original post, this is a richly valued company in a Wall Street hyped space (the internet of things).  A chart trade.  Unlike BBRY for example, which … Continue reading NFTRH+; CTRL

NFTRH; Gold Funda’s & More TA

Bloomberg headline:

Jobless Claims Drop as US Consumers Gain Confidence

Economic deceleration is sure not on the front burner.  Yet the US continues to try to inflate, as does a good portion of the developed world.  Questions include… will we get rising inflation concerns and will this inflation and precious metals bounce foretell economic drudgery (or worse) to come?  In 2000 when the great stock bull blew out and the gold bull began, things were about as good as they get for the economy.

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ZIRP Gains More Attention

We have been talking about how there had been no bubble in US stocks and how the economy is doing just fine.  We have also been talking about how the bubble is in policy and that the economy and stock bull market have been created – yes, like Frankenstein’s monster once again – out of this policy bubble.

Enter economist Joseph LaVorgna of Deutche Bank…  Fed needs to start raising rates, top forecaster says.

Will wonders never cease?  As you may know, I read the financial MSM to get a feel for what the casual market participant is reading, what the majority is being told is the truth.  Usually it is some combo of self-promoters and agenda (sometimes political) driven bulls and bears.

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