NFTRH; Gold Funda’s & More TA

Bloomberg headline:

Jobless Claims Drop as US Consumers Gain Confidence

Economic deceleration is sure not on the front burner.  Yet the US continues to try to inflate, as does a good portion of the developed world.  Questions include… will we get rising inflation concerns and will this inflation and precious metals bounce foretell economic drudgery (or worse) to come?  In 2000 when the great stock bull blew out and the gold bull began, things were about as good as they get for the economy.

Today is a flash point of some kind.  While it is getting hysterical and over bought (refer back to our GDX resistance points 1, 2 and 3 in NFTRH 295 and a previous update) out there, the impulsiveness seems to be saying something about macro changes to come.  It also may be locking in the HUI bottom pattern that we have been calling potential for oh so long now.

MarketWatch headline:

Gold hovers around 1300 on Fed, Iraq

A caveat to all of this would be to what degree Iraq is playing into gold.  It is NOT a fundamental consideration.  It is a hype consideration.

A subscriber notes that structural changes in India are driving gold.  That is a fundamental consideration as Modi and Rajan work out their differences.  But a key to sustained bullishness, as in new bull market, remains gold’s ‘real’ price as adjusted by commodities.

Gold vs. Oil bouncing hard.


Gold vs. Commodities is bouncing hard.


Gold vs. Industrial Metals resuming a bounce from a higher low.


TIP-TLT (inflation expectations indicator) possibly making a bottom.


Using our bigger picture gold-commodities charts (‘real’ price of gold), we have been awaiting point 4 to put in a higher low to keep the big picture fundamental perspective intact.  Today seems to be so impulsive as to quite possibly be setting point 4.


If at such time as this chart (and its shorter term brethren) bottoms a new phase would likely be engaging; the 2014 ‘macro pivot’ if you will, that NFTRH has been anticipating.

We are over bought, traders are profit taking and holders and fundamentalists are evaluating the above in consideration of buying any pullbacks to come, which would be a sound strategy if the fundamentals come in line.

Today is impulsive as HUI gaps above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.  Nothing is for certain in the black magic known as TA.  But a gap that happens on volume and propels an index or stock above the 50 and 200 day moving averages (changing the trend) is often known as a breakaway gap, with no need to fill any time soon.  It is a statement.

Again, more to come as the dust settles this weekend.