NFTRH; GDX Weekly Chart Status, Targets & Resistance

GDX is reviewed from a bigger picture weekly view after holding its ‘HUI 205’ parameter of 22 as support.  This is defined as the bottom of a theoretical right side shoulder to a long potential Inverted Head & Shoulders bottoming pattern that is now about a year old.

gdx

Very simply, the next 3 resistance levels are noted for your management of gold stocks or simply as perspective about their current status and what the near term objectives for this bounce/rally would be.  RSI and MACD are still red and it will be interesting to see what GDX can do at resistance #1, which includes the Bollinger Band mid point or either of points 2 or 3.  Those are the areas to expect some disturbance.

We’ll not get too involved in fundamentals here, but I look forward to tracking inflation expectations, gold vs. commodities, gold-stock market and bond yield relationships along with CoT data and sentiment as usual in NFTRH to see if we can’t actually scare up some positive macro changes go with the technicals that at this moment at least, are spot on to the weekly bottoming plan and CoT/Sentiment that are constructive.

In short, if this is the completion of a right side shoulder, then the bullish signal would be coming with macro funda not yet baked (technicals of course may lead that process) but with a sentiment/CoT backdrop that got pretty good.

Observing these fundamentals (and sentiment analysis) kept us safe for the entire bear market, if they were observed.  But at some point the bear will end and the bottom may already be in, again if this weekly bottom view proves correct.  It is that technical view vs. a fundamental backdrop that has not yet come in line.