A snapshot of the current daily chart technical status of several ETFs…
GLD is bullish but in the equivalent resistance zone as noted for gold in NFTRH 296. MACD and RSI positive, with RSI close to over bought. Key support is at the MA 50 and 200.
SLV is bullish but at the equivalent resistance noted for silver in NFTRH 296 and over bought. Key support for a strong rally is 19.75, but a still-normal 50% rally retrace would bring SLV to around 19.
GDX is bullish but became over bought and has turned down right from Resistance #2 as noted in NFTRH 296 and previously. While there is support at the gap, more notable support is at the moving averages.
GDXJ is bullish but became over bought and began to correct. Support ranges from 38 down to 36.
SIL is bullish but became over bought and a 50% retrace would bring it to the MA’s 50 and 200, which would be a normal pullback. There is some support above as noted, however.
DBC became somewhat over bought and is consolidating. Supports are noted. Bullish.
DBA triggered MACD, got RSI above 50 and sneaked above resistance yesterday. If it is able to hold that it can go bullish with a rise above 28.50. One day does not yet make firm support.
USO is bullish but became somewhat over bought on Iraq. USO could be headed to the equivalent of our 110 target on WTI Crude, which currently resides just below 107.
UNG is neutral as it goes sideways above breakout support and below resistance.
TLT inched above resistance yesterday and with MACD positive and triggered it is bullish. As with DBA, one day above resistance is not yet firm support.
SPY is over bought and has a suspect MACD and RSI negative divergence. It is also bullish to this point.
QQQ built in a lot of support with the recovery rally that just kept on going. Is this a bullish Cup & Handle? Could be, but MACD is rolling over from an over bought level.
SMH has curled down out of its ridiculously strong up channel. Semi’s have been a guide since the beginning of the bull rally in early 2013 and more intensely, since the 10 year breakout. SMH is bullish but MACD is triggering down from wildly over bought.
EZU is neutral at best with a rolling MACD triggered down and RSI below 50. Support around the SMA 50 will be key.
EEM remains bullish in a series of higher highs and higher lows above support, but MACD is rolling.
FXI has key support at the bottoming pattern’s neckline and the SMA’s 200 and 50. Neutral due to turned down MACD and marginal RSI.
Bottom Line
- Precious Metals became over bought at resistance we had noted during the rally, and continuing corrective activity would be normal. The support levels noted above are considered key to keeping the rally and associated corrective activity normal.
- Commodities are a mixed bag as crude oil has taken its turn doing the heavy lifting of late. Commodities still appear to be little more than rolling speculations for hedge funds, black boxes, dark pools and the like. They would benefit from an ‘inflation play’, but are not yet actionable.
- Stock Markets look extended and ripe for correction in the US and Europe. One day “ripe for correction” might actually translate into a correction, but it has not happened yet. High risk rides along with rising markets in an environment like this. The risk of correction is very high. An alternate plan continues to be the blow off scenario, into eventual bull termination. Emerging and China are less extreme.
