10yr/2yr Yield Spread Steepens to Highest Level Since the Boom

Here is the up close view of the spread, which continues to steepen since the summer mini-inversion. May be nothing, probably is something. And that something would mean changes for 2020, as per the ongoing NFTRH view. While a steepening curve can feature deflationary or inflationary pressure, the current situation is deflationary. The question being, will there be an unexpected shift to inflationary in 2020? … Continue reading 10yr/2yr Yield Spread Steepens to Highest Level Since the Boom

US 10/2 Yield Spread: “Slowly I Turn… “

I had a feeling the post-FOMC plunge might be a final shake out of the steepener contingent, of which I am a card carrying member, still carrying my home made ‘long SHY/short the long bond’ steepener (that is by the way paying dividends in both vehicles as TBT just spit one out and SHY does so every month). The spread just ticked a recovery high. … Continue reading US 10/2 Yield Spread: “Slowly I Turn… “

10/2 Yield Spread Alligator Chomping Along

The most recent tooth in this alligator’s jaw is toward the flattening side as the 10/2 continues to grind out a potential steepener for 2019. It’s not me saying that. It’ the still intact chart (CNBC) saying that. Said alligator will want to hold above the June low, however. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $33.50 or a 14% discounted yearly at USD $345.00) … Continue reading 10/2 Yield Spread Alligator Chomping Along

Updating the Yield Spread (simple post morphs into a full frontal screed)

Here is the 10/2 as presented live here. The spread is pulling back very recently but maintains a modest uptrend (steepening) for 2019. Here is the 5 year view showing a break of the hard flattening trend since 2016. On the very long-term view we can see that a bottom and turn to steepening has not always meant Armageddon. It did not mean that in … Continue reading Updating the Yield Spread (simple post morphs into a full frontal screed)