Having fun yet? If you are a bull or a bear you have probably been annoyed plenty lately as SPX builds out a cute little H&S pattern and chops everybody…
41 pages to make a few simple points? Well yes, a few simple, yet critical points and a whole lot of other perspective and updating of the whole global financial…
I've got to run as it's time to get ready to take out Mom, so here is the majority of the email that accompanied the report to subscribers this morning. …
We talk a lot about USD, Yen, the 'inflation trade' and of course, silver. We set targets, parameters and risk profiles. We personally benefit once again from grinding out this…
HUI has, barring a spectacular reversal, cleared the most recent target of 211 and with unrelenting strength. I have added RSI to the weekly chart we have used to plot the bull market signals of 211 (door opener), 251 and 261 (confirmers). RSI is getting over bought. The implication is that when a correction comes it is going to be an extended affair unlike the sideways to down consolidation and small bull flag pullbacks to date.
A look at how a few markets are setting up pre-FOMC.
The charts are what they are, but we are dependent upon what the Fed may or may not put out there on Wednesday. I would put the odds of a rate hike at just this side of zero. But they are free to leave forward looking wording as is or do a little tweaking from the currently ultra dovish stance toward at least opening a discussion for rate hike expectations for June.
A look-ahead to some of the US and global markets and sectors that would benefit from a weaker dollar, which is the theme shaping up on the macro as the Fed backs away from support of the currency and joins the global currency Whack-a-Mole game. Obviously, that which has suffered disproportionately under a strong dollar regime would benefit if/as it weakens.
The market, despite weakening corporate profits and several other headwinds, has decided it liked what it heard from the Inflator in Chief yesterday as it has scored the game Janet Yellen 2, Hawks in Drag 1 and US dollar 0. Is it a final score? I am not sure how our hawkish transvestites can be taken seriously now.
But with a market running on the black boxes of a million quants, large and small, who knows what will happen the next time some clown decides to eat a microphone and dispense dissonance into a situation that Yellen seems very clear on; as my late friend Jonathan Auerbach once famously said (it was famous to me anyway) as we prepared for the post-2008 inflation phase, “it’s inflation all the way baby!”
NFTRH 388 was sent to subscribers earlier today. A sensible plan seems to be coming into place about when to expect a more sustainable 'inflation trade' with the USD in…
No time for a promo today. A good report, and a lot of editorial commenting to boot (incl. the coolest old clown car you'll ever see!). Subscribe to NFTRH Premium…
It occurs to me that in public writing I tend to bludgeon people with macro fundamentals (like gold vs. positively correlated markets, yield relationships and even confidence in global policy…
It's another week further into the macro backdrop that we have worked hard to anticipate for a long while now. Anticipation is one (sometimes frustrating) thing, but 'actionable' is quite…
We have been on the bounce scenario and speaking as a bear on the intermediate trend, I say thank you Mr. Kuroda. Everything, including clear as day analysis on the…
S&P 500 If today follows through with more downside, the bounce scenario would be in trouble. [Note: When I began the update, futures were down handily, and at its completion,…