Having fun yet? If you are a bull or a bear you have probably been annoyed plenty lately as SPX builds out a cute little H&S pattern and chops everybody up daily. Stocks were up yesterday because… reasons. Stocks are down today because… other reasons.
I added to my US market short positions on yesterday’s goofy China bounce or oil bounce or whatever that was. Now short SPY (largest position) and leveraged short NDX (short TQQQ) and RUT (short TNA). Against these remain a few long positions in stocks of companies I like, charts I like or mainly, both.
Here’s the old SPX weekly “reasons” chart…
Over in precious metals land… yay, gold bugs who waited years to finally be right are having their day! I am long there (quality miners) and I am short there (vs. silver), I have a lot of cash there and I really don’t care there. The thing is running on momentum with only the dumbest of the dumb bidding higher. HUI’s got a target of 251 to attain, after all, and somebody’s got to get it there I guess.
Here are the simple GDX and GDXJ charts used to alert subscribers in real time yesterday as the ETFs were sneaking above the lines.
Meanwhile, the Silver-Gold ratio is diverging the HUI. If silver has another run up its sleeve I’ll get out of the way as best I can with the bear positioning (DSLV, currently profitable). But I want to keep gains and be balanced in the precious metals.
As for our friend the regular stock market, I’ll look forward to increasing shorting if the neckline above gives way. Despite the wonder bounce coinciding with the ‘inflation trade’ from mid-February the bears never quite gave up the longer-term trend you know. Bulls took back short-term trends and bully never relinquished the very long-term trends. But the most dangerous trend right now remains the lower highs and lower lows in force from about a year ago.
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