Gold vs. Cyclical Asset Markets

Gold vs. risk ‘on’, cyclical items For you sports fans keeping track at home, here is the current view of gold vs. the (much) more cyclical stuff using GLD and various ETFs representing the other markets. It’s a daily chart and you can see gold’s intermediate trend by the SMA 50. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH … Continue reading Gold vs. Cyclical Asset Markets

NFTRH+; Futures go bonkers, Ni vertical, Au to target… some thoughts

Various ‘war trades’ spiked and some are reversing in pre-market. Palladium and gold did the spike and reversal while nickel is doing what wheat did last week, limiting up. From NFTRH 696, part 4: Insofar as current TA and sentiment trends remain intact, we’re looking for gold to 2000+, silver to 30+/- and HUI to 325. Gold ticked 2007 before reversing. Silver did not do … Continue reading NFTRH+; Futures go bonkers, Ni vertical, Au to target… some thoughts

NFTRH+; this is a microcosm of the proper gold mining ‘buy’ backdrop

With the understanding that the precious metals are still trending down by daily charts and the broader markets are still trending up, here’s a dialed-in look at some day trader type in-day charts showing gold doing what it is supposed to do when the system comes under liquidity stress and showing a microcosm of why I belabor the point about liquidity stress (not inflation) being … Continue reading NFTRH+; this is a microcosm of the proper gold mining ‘buy’ backdrop

NFTRH+; Seasonal averages for several commodities, including Au & Ag

With all due caveats about seasonal averages (these cover 30 years) and the variations from them in any given year, below are the facts of what these commodities have done, on average over those years. Gold’s current bounce is matching a sweet spot on the average, where an interim top comes in October and a secondary low in December before a hard bottom and upturn. … Continue reading NFTRH+; Seasonal averages for several commodities, including Au & Ag

Gold mining GOR-fest

Gold miners (HUI) are out of whack with the Gold/Oil ratio (GOR) and the Gold/SPX ratio This isn’t to say that the would-be bounce (HUI is postured in a small potential ‘w’ with constructive daily RSI & MACD) in the gold miners will not resume, but the charts below do not lie. The Gold (product)/Oil (cost input commodity) ratio (GOR) shows that despite the ongoing … Continue reading Gold mining GOR-fest

Gold vs. SPY (and other markets/assets)

Gold is now bouncing vs. most risk ‘on’, inflation-sensitive and/or cyclical markets/assets Since first noting the very spark of an initial hint in NFTRH 653 and then again in this subscriber update (now public), gold has gone on to put on a moderate to vigorous bounce in relation to a world full of inflated, reflated and cyclical asset markets. May be nothing, may be something. … Continue reading Gold vs. SPY (and other markets/assets)

Request: A Good and Reputable Oil & Gas Authority [w/ edit]

[edit] He is actually looking for other research viewpoints in order to refute or confirm the information in the report below. A global fund manager I do some work with requests a good Oil & Gas newsletter source. By “good” I don’t some some schlep who was promoting PEAK OIL!!! or other such oil price/supply obsessive. I don’t mean someone who is known or famous … Continue reading Request: A Good and Reputable Oil & Gas Authority [w/ edit]

NFTRH; Opportunity at Hand?

To answer the title’s question, it feels climactic, with crude oil now leading the charge in the Bear Olympics race to the bottom. -24% in a day. That is breathtaking. ‘Opportunity’ is a wide target and it may mean today or it may mean generally, with patience and discrete asset selection. But we’re in motion and that will eventually bring opportunity. Gold is doing what … Continue reading NFTRH; Opportunity at Hand?

What Expiring Bubbles Look Like [w/ edit]

The Nasdaq bubble popped in 2000 after motoring upward on increasing volume in two separate phases. Volume rammed upward and RSI diverged. Like shootin’ fish in a barrel it was, except that at the time I was too inexperienced to see it. It was a steep slope and blow out. The 2006 bubble in copper made a consolidation and a steep slope and blow out … Continue reading What Expiring Bubbles Look Like [w/ edit]

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NFTRH; Market Knee Jerk Playbook: US-Iran Edition

I checked the futures this morning only to see broad stocks down after yesterday’s ‘China stimulus’ party. I saw copper down but oil up and there was gold (and to a much lesser degree, silver), ramping up as well. Hmmm… strange. What could be up with these mixed messages? Well of course, it’s the old geopolitical tensions play (US-Iran). Now I suppose anything can happen … Continue reading NFTRH; Market Knee Jerk Playbook: US-Iran Edition

Wonder What Oil Producing Nation Stands to Benefit from the Saudi Strike

Oh yes, it’s Russia. And yes, I am holding ERUS after a buy back on the most recent uptrend pullback (per the Trade Log and NFTRH reports, of course). It’s just starting to tick the up-trend’s next higher high. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $35.00 or a discounted yearly at USD $365.00) for an in-depth weekly market report, interim market updates and NFTRH+ … Continue reading Wonder What Oil Producing Nation Stands to Benefit from the Saudi Strike

Pretty Pictures for Gold Bugs (gold ratios)

Backing out the trade noise and taking the charts straight up for what they are, here are gold’s ratios (and thereby, fundamental implications) using ETFs as the vehicles. Notice the green RSI on all items. Gold/US Stock Market is not yet pretty, but it’s bouncing. Gold/Global Stocks is better as it took out and held both moving averages. Gold/Commodities is better still as it attempts … Continue reading Pretty Pictures for Gold Bugs (gold ratios)

The Gold/Oil Ratio Has Something To Say

See? I told you… A gold miner fundamental consideration has a very different Q4 from Q3. Now, taking into consideration that it is almost ritual for inflationist gold bugs to be selling while the funda improve, we add in a little thing called patience as the process grinds forward. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $33.50 or a 14% discounted yearly at USD $345.00) … Continue reading The Gold/Oil Ratio Has Something To Say