Gold miners watch the “last inflated man standing” start to fail

As we step toward a counter-cyclical macro, the fundamentals will finally improve for gold mining From a June 19th interview I did with with Jordan Roy Byrne with respect to gold stocks, Energy and the proper macro fundamentals for the gold mining sector: In my experience gold stocks will… they can paint ugly charts and then follow through on those ugly charts. But when a … Continue reading Gold miners watch the “last inflated man standing” start to fail

Interesting Gold/Commodity correlations to yields

Copper/Gold and Oil/Gold correlated with the 10yr yield From yardeni.com, a visual representation of one implication of the Copper/Gold ratio, which I often make a big deal about. If the Copper/Gold ratio has broken down for real (I believe it has) then yields are going to reverse, along with the inflation trades. That’s a theme I’ve had going for about a year now, but this … Continue reading Interesting Gold/Commodity correlations to yields

Gold bugs, be not saddened

What is happening to gold lately and today is heartening It’s been my favored scenario for becoming a gold stock bull. It goes like this… Inflation touts go over the top, include gold bug inflationists touting silver, copper, hogs, oil… gold! The Fed is not listening to anyone humping deflation. It is listening to the bond market and dead set on destruction… Inflationists are being … Continue reading Gold bugs, be not saddened

Commodity tracker dunks below the SMA 200

Commodities are starting to crack Disclaimer: commodities are notorious for rotation, as if the hedgies, quants and black boxes are playing Whack-a-Mole, roving the landscape rotating to the next play before they leave it high and dry. But here is the CRB tracker DBC doing something pretty notable, don’t you think? Even as DBC has out-performed the broad SPX since July (lower panel) its nominal … Continue reading Commodity tracker dunks below the SMA 200

Gold vs. cyclical and more inflation-sensitive markets

Gold’s ratios to cyclical markets continue to pivot Just an updated picture of the macro pivoting toward what will be a positive fundamental backdrop for gold mining. The holdout continues to be the last inflated man standing, crude oil and the energy sector. While Gold/Oil is still pinned gold has made a move of the bottom vs. Energy stocks (XLE). That’s something, at least. When … Continue reading Gold vs. cyclical and more inflation-sensitive markets

Gold vs. Cyclical Asset Markets

Gold vs. risk ‘on’, cyclical items For you sports fans keeping track at home, here is the current view of gold vs. the (much) more cyclical stuff using GLD and various ETFs representing the other markets. It’s a daily chart and you can see gold’s intermediate trend by the SMA 50. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH … Continue reading Gold vs. Cyclical Asset Markets

NFTRH+; Futures go bonkers, Ni vertical, Au to target… some thoughts

Various ‘war trades’ spiked and some are reversing in pre-market. Palladium and gold did the spike and reversal while nickel is doing what wheat did last week, limiting up. From NFTRH 696, part 4: Insofar as current TA and sentiment trends remain intact, we’re looking for gold to 2000+, silver to 30+/- and HUI to 325. Gold ticked 2007 before reversing. Silver did not do … Continue reading NFTRH+; Futures go bonkers, Ni vertical, Au to target… some thoughts

NFTRH+; this is a microcosm of the proper gold mining ‘buy’ backdrop

With the understanding that the precious metals are still trending down by daily charts and the broader markets are still trending up, here’s a dialed-in look at some day trader type in-day charts showing gold doing what it is supposed to do when the system comes under liquidity stress and showing a microcosm of why I belabor the point about liquidity stress (not inflation) being … Continue reading NFTRH+; this is a microcosm of the proper gold mining ‘buy’ backdrop

NFTRH+; Seasonal averages for several commodities, including Au & Ag

With all due caveats about seasonal averages (these cover 30 years) and the variations from them in any given year, below are the facts of what these commodities have done, on average over those years. Gold’s current bounce is matching a sweet spot on the average, where an interim top comes in October and a secondary low in December before a hard bottom and upturn. … Continue reading NFTRH+; Seasonal averages for several commodities, including Au & Ag

Gold mining GOR-fest

Gold miners (HUI) are out of whack with the Gold/Oil ratio (GOR) and the Gold/SPX ratio This isn’t to say that the would-be bounce (HUI is postured in a small potential ‘w’ with constructive daily RSI & MACD) in the gold miners will not resume, but the charts below do not lie. The Gold (product)/Oil (cost input commodity) ratio (GOR) shows that despite the ongoing … Continue reading Gold mining GOR-fest

Gold vs. SPY (and other markets/assets)

Gold is now bouncing vs. most risk ‘on’, inflation-sensitive and/or cyclical markets/assets Since first noting the very spark of an initial hint in NFTRH 653 and then again in this subscriber update (now public), gold has gone on to put on a moderate to vigorous bounce in relation to a world full of inflated, reflated and cyclical asset markets. May be nothing, may be something. … Continue reading Gold vs. SPY (and other markets/assets)

Request: A Good and Reputable Oil & Gas Authority [w/ edit]

[edit] He is actually looking for other research viewpoints in order to refute or confirm the information in the report below. A global fund manager I do some work with requests a good Oil & Gas newsletter source. By “good” I don’t some some schlep who was promoting PEAK OIL!!! or other such oil price/supply obsessive. I don’t mean someone who is known or famous … Continue reading Request: A Good and Reputable Oil & Gas Authority [w/ edit]

NFTRH; Opportunity at Hand?

To answer the title’s question, it feels climactic, with crude oil now leading the charge in the Bear Olympics race to the bottom. -24% in a day. That is breathtaking. ‘Opportunity’ is a wide target and it may mean today or it may mean generally, with patience and discrete asset selection. But we’re in motion and that will eventually bring opportunity. Gold is doing what … Continue reading NFTRH; Opportunity at Hand?