Gold ratios to cyclical markets are rising
Using the related ETFs, let’s have a look at gold’s ratios to other markets.
Gold’s relative standing within the macro has been impaired by the last 2 decades of monetary panic policy (what they today politely call MMT) and the massive bubbles it has instigated and sustained. These are just daily charts and they have favored gold many times over the years. But when the everything bubble bursts, I expect it to become a long trend, not just counter-cyclical trading opportunities as has been the case.
The Gold/Silver ratio is holding its positive posture after breaking upward a few weeks ago. This comps a less cyclical, more monetary precious metal to a more cyclical, less monetary, more inflation sensitive one.
Sticking with metals ratios, Gold/Copper quiets any China hype and therefore, copper hype. The counter-cyclical metal is bullish vs. the economic Doctor and ultimate cyclical metal.
Gold/Oil ratio is on a bounce, at least. This during a time when oil is being driven by war just as gold is, to potentially significant degree. If this upward break continues a fundamental tailwind will engage for the gold mining industry. Side note: current analysis in NFTRH discriminates between forward implications and that which is already in the books for Q3 reporting upcoming. Public readers can probably figure out the reason by looking at the chart.
Gold/Commodities made a bottom of some kind in early October. If this follows through, an important measure of the ‘real’ price of gold would go bullish.
Gold/US stock market is impulsive due to war and the ongoing correction in stocks. Please remember not to interpret me as a gold or gold stock booster. There are a couple different viable possibilities in play for gold and stocks that could temporarily compromise this bullish move here in Q4, 2023. But at face value, gold is trying to reassert its broken uptrend vs. SPY/SPX.
Ditto and even more extreme for gold vs. global stock markets.
Gold/Silver Ratio: A sensitive signal within the precious metals. If it breaks positive the indication is waning macro liquidity, although NFTRH analysis uncovered an atypical period many years ago that argues against set it, forget it automatic thinking. Remember, the USD is part of the equation. Again, details for NFTRH, not here.
Gold/Commodities: The ‘real’ price of gold as measured against commodities, including gold mining costs (oil) and global cyclical indications (copper).
Gold/Stock Markets: More of a sentiment/psychology centered measure of gold’s ‘real’ price. When the time comes that the stock market is failing, even the most buttoned down Wharton grad superstar fund managers are going to notice and become gold and gold mining bulls.
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