The Semiconductor sector appears to be re-taking leadership The broad Semiconductor sector is hinting to take back its leadership over big Tech and possibly the broad SPX as well on the daily chart view. While a look inside the sector’s internals shows that two premier Semi Equipment companies, Applied Materials and Lam Research are constructive and not yet actionable with respect to leadership by companies … Continue reading Semiconductor sector leadership updated
US stock market leadership is intact We noted in NFTRH that Semiconductor leadership was well intact, but overbought. That is being remedied now as SOX/NDX and SOX/SPX pull back. Within Semi, the premier Semi Equipment stock, LRCX, is still in leadership mode, which I see as a positive as well, because the Equipment companies supply the Fabs that make the chips. i.e. they anticipate demand. … Continue reading A Look Inside the US Stock Market
This article calls junk bonds a canary in a coal mine. Analysts often view ructions in the high-yield, or “junk-bond,” market as a canary in the coal mine, or an early warning to when investors might start taking flight from riskier assets altogether. I obviously see bearish junk as a bearish confirmation for the markets, but it’s not a canary. Canaries are/were put in coal … Continue reading Canaries at Odds
When we were originally alerted to the coming slowdown in Semi Equipment, my industry contact had been working to a Q4 2018 to Q1 2019 game plan for cyclical recovery. Now it seems this may have been pushed out by a quarter, at least. His words exactly… Hi Gary, We see business off about 25-30% from the high over the past year. I suspect it … Continue reading NFTRH; The Latest Word on the Semi Equipment Cycle (high priority)
On November 21, 2017 we noted… Semi Equipment Spending Record, 2018 Growth, But… With the key being the “but… “ Per that post… What got me checking into the SEMI data is a goofy MarketWatch article featuring a fund manager who owns the FAANG type stocks at 30 multiples, but has found relative value in AMAT and LRCX, the two Semiconductor Equipment stocks that I … Continue reading Semi Sector 9+ Months On…
We began tracking this negative divergence in NFTRH last year as the leadership of two premier Semi Equipment companies began to decelerate vs. the broad sector. Over time the ugly patterns became even uglier with breakdowns to new lows. This chart shows that ugliness but more importantly it tries to illustrate AMAT & LRCX as leading indicators for the broad markets. In 2013 it was … Continue reading Semi Sector: A Warning or a Buy?
I am having trouble logging into Fidelity and thus managing my own affairs, so time is limited and this post contains no fundamental facts to back up the title other than the 60 min. charts of our original Semiconductor Equipment canaries in the coal mine, LRCX and AMAT, which are getting hammered this morning. Could this canary be 1000 lbs. overweight, have the ability to … Continue reading Mutant Canaries Chirping in Semi Sector?
What got me checking into the SEMI data is a goofy MarketWatch article featuring a fund manager who owns the FAANG type stocks at 30 multiples, but has found relative value in AMAT and LRCX, the two Semiconductor Equipment stocks that I was bullish on 1.5 years ago. I know, I know… I sold too soon and that is my issue and I have to … Continue reading Semi Equipment Spending Record, 2018 Growth, But…
Way back on June 20, 2016, as we were getting bullish the Semiconductor sector, we did an NFTRH+ highlight on LRCX. That was the 1st day it crept above very clear resistance and the top line of a bullish Ascending Triangle. A target of 106 was established. Later, in a public post we presented this simplified weekly chart showing LRCX’s robo trend upward (above the … Continue reading Targets Are Not Stop Signs; LRCX Edition (plus a mini screed)
A few weekly charts (the index, the primary chip maker, an equipment company and a materials company) to gauge the progress of this sector that was so hard to get bullish on a few months ago and now, maybe too easy to be bullish on for momos, speed freaks and various other casino patrons. The Semiconductor Index (SOX) measures to 870 on its weekly pattern. … Continue reading Checking in on the Semiconductor Complex
While some might want us to focus solely on the big layoff at Cisco, why don’t we stay with what is actually happening. What is actually happening is that there are pockets of weakness and pockets of strength, throughout the economy. Cisco for example, cites the Brexit disturbance for some of its issues. It is more of a lagging, consumer-direct oriented company after all. Applied … Continue reading Semi Equipment Company, AMAT: Record Earnings
Thing 1 is Lam Research, a Semiconductor Equipment company. I have held it for weeks but given the market’s short-term risk profile, am taking well earned profit as I did with its fellow, AMAT. LRCX’s quarter is out and we have our answers. It was indeed correct for us (NFTRH) to be bullish on the Equipment sector for Q2’s results reporting. Thing 2 is Cabot … Continue reading Taking More Semi Profit (LRCX)
On Monday we had NFTRH+ updates on a couple of prime Semi Equipment names, Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX). This was a logical extension of the weekend report’s analysis of the sector. After the updates I found it interesting how each of these items have remained firm on days when the market is having Brexit jitters and Bremain euphoria alike. That may mean … Continue reading NFTRH+; On the Lam (public)
This is a stunning technical view of another Semi equipment company, Lam Research. With all due caveats about a news-filled, roiled week in the markets, LRCX is making a move today that we can use for our macro theses of Semi Equipment bullishness, an early economic signal and just maybe, a cost-push inflation issue down the road.
The daily chart is breaking to a new high above the April high (which you will recall is our guideline for broad market indexes to trigger a bullish view).