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Targets Are Not Stop Signs; LRCX Edition (plus a mini screed)

Way back on June 20, 2016, as we were getting bullish the Semiconductor sector, we did an NFTRH+ highlight on LRCX.  That was the 1st day it crept above very clear resistance and the top line of a bullish Ascending Triangle.  A target of 106 was established.

Later, in a public post we presented this simplified weekly chart showing LRCX’s robo trend upward (above the EMA 20) after having held a key long-term moving average (EMA 180) during the 2015 bear hysterics.

lrcx

The point of this post is to note that it was fairly hard to call LRCX (and especially the Semi sector) bullish last spring after the negative reinforcement of the preceding 1.5 years, but it had to be done because our job should be to be early, not to be herding (ref. Goldman’s recent bullish call in LRCX after it had already hit our target) when everyone is feeling good.

I also had a former subscriber’s technology “expert” touting the opposite of my view as he was very bearish the Semis and very bullish the gold sector.  This expert was 100% turned around in the wrong direction at that time.  The subscriber quit, I shook my head and I will always remember that learning moment (about people and herding behaviors).

But anyway, now 8 months later Goldman is bullish, the herds are bullish and hell, I’ll bet even the experts are bullish.  The target has been exceeded; whoopee!  The market is now running on momentum, a very poor risk vs. reward proposition and the dumbest, most herding money is long.  Since I am long too, and since I don’t want to be dumb, I am going to continue taking profits off the table.

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