May ISM and Payrolls both positive Today the backward looking Payrolls report gets the headlines but this week saw another important economic report. One that probably contains more important information. The May ISM PMI came out and it shows contracting employment but still buoyant prices, orders and general business. The complications arise in the persistent supply chain issues, complicated by COVID-19 and a geopolitical world … Continue reading ISM & Payrolls
ISM hints at forward deceleration Uncle Buck As a former manufacturing guy I am well aware of how monetary policy and the state of the US dollar affects US manufacturers. But I have not been that guy for so long now that I tend not to look at it as closely anymore. But the current time seems appropriate for a review of the manufacturing sector. … Continue reading April ISM and the forward economic view
ISM’s Report on Business (RoB) blisters upward, but… My former residence within the real economy was right here, in the manufacturing base. I don’t miss it even one little bit, but were I still involved we’d be booming and bitching. Business would be very good and prices and supply constraints very aggravating. The way things went in my segment – Medical Equipment, often pressured by … Continue reading A Decidedly Different Look at the ISM Report on Business
Here is the full ISM Report on Business if you’d like to check it out. Here are the concerning items I’ve marked up… Here are what some respondents have to say for November’s situation… Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $35.00 or a discounted yearly at USD $365.00) for an in-depth weekly market report, interim market updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade setup ideas. … Continue reading ISM Continues to Fade
I guess the post’s title could be taken a couple of different ways. But let’s play it straight and break down the report from my former sector of the economy. Respondents are not in a cheerful mood as we enter what I think is going to be a pivotal Q4. From ISM… So let’s take a glance at the numbers. The key pain points are … Continue reading ISM Breakdown
The PMI declined again in August and it was not just due to less important readings like Production or Deliveries. The key failures are highlighted. Backlogs grew for the period but are firmly in contraction for the trend. Not good. None of these are good. Now, I cannot stand the man named Donald J. Trump. But laying this entirely at his feet would not make … Continue reading Looking Into the ISM Manufacturing Report
The headline is 58.7% (full report here) but I have highlighted in green the items that matter. New orders are brisk, along with employment. Inventories, backlogs and prices implying cost pressures. This all supports the near-term plan for an increasing inflationary err, awareness throughout the economy. That’s near-term, which we may well be inclined to enjoy. The bigger plan comes after that when we must … Continue reading ISM Fuels Near-term Inflation View
ISM is not going to move many needles one way or the other with this report. I’ve highlighted the important items. New orders eased but are still in growth mode and interestingly (to our inflation view), employment and prices kicked up. On the downside, already light backlogs dropped again. That is not a good forward-looker for manufacturers. From ISM… Still, our plucky respondents are mostly … Continue reading October ISM: PMI Steady at 51.9%
The most important ISM element is the one that improved the most in September; New Orders. Order Backlog contraction eased as well, to near even. A few notables are highlighted among ISM respondents…. Here’s a look at the booking trend. Was August just a dead summer vacation month? When I used to be in the business it often was. Whatever it was, September is back … Continue reading Looking into the ISM Rebound
The weak ISM headline number (PMI) was an excuse for bonds and precious metals to bounce and the US dollar to drop today. It evidently inspired wild eyed casino patrons to unwind recent positions (short gold, long USD for instance) as the great and powerful Fed now has reason to stand down in September. Such is life in the casino; always a story, always a … Continue reading ISM Manufacturing is Wobbling @ PMI 49.4%; Early Economic Alert?
Factory orders came in okay, joining a pretty good ISM (manufacturing) the other day while ISM (services) eased in May. Could we be seeing a phase change, where old fashioned things like manufacturing and mining come back into play and newfangled things like all the ways this economy has been servicing itself take a step back? All under the pressure of a weakening US dollar? … Continue reading ISM Services Eases
A fairly level ISM RoB for May. I’ve highlighted a couple notables. New orders are healthy and price creep is in effect, which would dovetail with our would-be Semiconductor related inflationary theme, perhaps down the road a piece. ISM now provides a handy RoB historical. Can you spot a trend? Look, I am as negative as the next guy about the fundamentals beneath the economy … Continue reading ISM Manufacturing RoB @ 51.3%
Actually, respondents are not that dour. I would expect Medical Devices to be relatively strong; they always were at economic weak patches when I was in the business. “Huge roll out in wireless in 2016”??? Hmmm, I am interested. Overall, the respondents seem in line with the idea that there can be a small bump in manufacturing to start the year. As for the PMI … Continue reading ISM PMI Contracts Again @ 48.2%
ISM’s November report is out and what do you know, we have another contraction. The general trend is that way under the pains of the strong dollar. No surprises. Still, the November report is driven by tanking prices, with the all-important new orders weak as well, but employment actually ticking up. Here is what various respondents had to say. Continue reading ISM Contracts, Not Quite as Bad as Headline
