Back to the normal format after getting some important details and distinctions worked out in last week’s more talkative edition. NFTRH 711, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by Credit Card or PayPal using a … Continue reading NFTRH 711, out now
Just doing the work and moving forward. NFTRH 705, out now. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. Subscribe by PayPal or credit card using a button on the right sidebar (if using a mobile device you may need … Continue reading NFTRH 705, out now
ACWX (world, ex-US) sports a Diamond pattern in the making. People incorrectly (IMO) label this as a reversal pattern when actually in my experience a Diamond tends to be a pause to consolidate prior to either a reversal or a continuation of the previous trend. So that is all it is, a decision point about further rally potential. Given the waning momentum indicators (it’s similar … Continue reading World in a Diamond
Yesterday we noted 3 sectors very interested in and benefiting from the cyclicality of rising long-term Treasury yields for a day at least. But what if the move is real, or as real as the Continuum’s limiter will allow it to be? What if the 30yr yield is headed for 2.6% or so? Well, below is a disgusting picture of the USA’s long, degrading journey … Continue reading Who’s Interested in Rising Long-term Treasury Yields?
The Trump/Fed/Treasury/Taxpayer backed reflation parlor trick known as currency devaluation does not only benefit the reflation sensitive US sectors (Materials, Industrials, Financials, etc.), it also benefits much of the world’s asset markets. The ratio of ACWX (World ex-US) to SPY is usually in line with inverse USD. Lately it has under performed but appears to have some catching up to do. In other words, global … Continue reading The World Celebrates USD Decline
First off, a wish to all readers for a happy Memorial Day weekend as we remember loved ones lost in battle and otherwise. Memorial is not a US thing, it’s an everybody thing. Today we take a look at various markets and assets using daily charts of the associated ETFs. The real work in determining the state of the markets going forward will be done … Continue reading Global Multi-Market/Asset Daily Chart Review
Per the email accompanying the report to subscribers… There is a lot going on this week from a macro perspective. For me, the Fed’s dovish stance along with the 2yr yield and the USD are at the center of most things. Also, the Cannabis sector makes its return after I re-thought my dismissive attitude toward it as a regular [segment]. Usually these reports help me … Continue reading NFTRH 546 Out Now
A snapshot of another of our themes, that of the US dollar and global markets’ inverse relationship. As noted in NFTRH 539 ACWX (world ex-US) has approached an area where someone who is bearish might consider shorting the world. Now, are you bearish? That is the question. The US dollar has been flogging up and down, whipsawing between the lateral support and resistance levels we’ve … Continue reading NFTRH; The World vs. Uncle Buck (high priority)
The simplest update we’ve ever had. An update on Nov. 26 talked about how Treasury yields are still set up bullish on the big picture and how inflation ain’t dead yet. A public post this morning talks about how global stocks have not buckled under to the strong USD (at least not yet). Now let’s also add to the mix the Baltic Dry Index which, … Continue reading NFTRH; One Simple Picture of Positive Divergence for Commodities & Global Markets (high priority)
In NFTRH 516 we talked about yields, the yield curve, silver, silver vs. gold and the possibility of an inflationary situation cropping up. Please review pages 10-13 in NFTRH 516, which talked about the unanswered question “inflationary or deflationary?” in more detail. The point I was trying to make is that if it’s the usual deflationary resolution it would get very bearish out there across … Continue reading NFTRH; Commodities, Global Stocks & Precious Metals (medium priority)
A look at some daily charts of global markets/ETFs vs. SPX/SPY. Same rules apply as with the US sectors; it’s not TA, it’s a gauge of relative trend. In this case, daily. Europe/US is and has been bouncing. Russia/US is and has been steadily up trending. China (large caps)/US (large caps) is and has been sideways/neutral with an upside bias (per the moving averages). EM/US … Continue reading vs. SPY, Global Edition
The major caveat being that the Baltic Dry Index is a calculation, not a readily TA-able index. But the calculation of shipping rates has been dropping for a few weeks now, and has broken back below the neckline of the “complex Inverted Head & Shoulders” * pattern. Of more importance, in declining it is diverging commodities, which have been firm but not followed BDI upward … Continue reading BDI Diverging Global Growth?
Several weeks ago NFTRH added a Global Market Internals segment to go with its US Market Internals views. The latter is actually more comprehensive as it not only compares US sectors against each other to gauge the most prospective sectors in any given period, but it also weighs interest rate dynamics relative to sectors and indicators on breadth, divergence, etc. The Global Market Internals segment … Continue reading Global Stock Market Comparisons
One of the charts from NFTRH’s Market Internals segment keeps track of several global markets in relation to the US SPX (SPY). While some of these are constructive nominally, the only actionable one vs. the S&P 500 is Europe, in a stair step up trend over the last year. I am long Euro-hedged Europe, but not gung ho about it yet. EM has been constructive … Continue reading Updating Global vs. US Stocks
