The Citi Economic Surprise Index led the correction; now what? As we noted for all too many months in a row in NFTRH, the CESI had been on a gross divergence to the S&P 500. That gap, as measured by SPX technicals, is now closed. Indeed, the data do not include today’s big GDP surprise. Interesting, and on the face of it, not bearish. From … Continue reading Surprise!
Citi Economic Surprise Index continues to flash a stark warning Not that it has mattered (as with other bubble indicators) but the CESI is and has been guiding the S&P 500 lower since 2020, and said S&P 500 refuses to listen. SPX is aloft in CESI terms by both its proximity to its 200 day moving average and by analysts’ lofty forward P/E projections. What … Continue reading CESI: Surprise!
The Citi Economic Surprise Index is going one way and the S&P 500 the other The S&P 500 and the forward views for the market by analysts are rising while the CESI goes the other way. Sounds about right for this market. Just an fyi visual to consider… From the trove of treasures at Yardeni Research: For “best of breed” top down analysis of all … Continue reading Even Negatively Surprised Economists Have Not Stopped This Market (yet)
In Friday’s post about the Stock/Economy Pumper-in-Chief we also noted regarding economic ‘experts’ AKA economists: Of course the ‘experts’ were wrong. They are usually wrong. That’s why I tune out ‘experts’, especially economists. Never a more Wrong Way bunch of Corrigans have I ever seen (don’t believe me, believe the Economic Surprise Index, constantly showing how surprised the experts are by economic activity). Here’s the … Continue reading Surprise!