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The Macro View and the Stock Market

Excerpted from the September 21 edition of NFTRH, #309, which went on to do extensive technical and macro work across all the key markets…

Last week we noted that Uncle Buck would be front and center in the analysis, not because the strength in the (anti-market) currency was not expected (it was), but because our big picture theme of an ongoing economic contraction had remained intact (ref: gold vs. commodities ratio) over the long-term.

It is important here to remember that NFTRH would only be on its big picture macro themes as long as indictors implied they are still viable.  I will be damned if I will let us follow a Pied Piper off an ideological cliff, no matter what readers (including me) might want to hear.  We must dedicate to know what is happening, not what our hopes, dreams, egos, etc. think or worse, hope will happen.

gsr.usd.mo

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September 22, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Multi Market Update

Gold stocks are down again today and it is now decision time (for the sector if not individuals).  That is because the parameter is to not make and hold a new low to the May low on a closing basis.  We noted that a bounce is possible and if it is going to happen it should happen around here, at the May low with a similar over sold RSI.  Either that or it would be broken with a lower low (that does not reverse quickly).

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September 22, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; EM’s vs. SPY, GSR, USD, etc…

There are a lot of things in play today, including a notable rise in the gold-silver ratio concurrent with USD (finally, these two are both working together, which would be a component of our favored macro plan for future economic contraction, stock market troubles, etc.).  But the point of this update is to further the point we made last week about the Emerging Markets’ potential breakdown nominally and in relation to the US market.

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September 19, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates / NFTRH+

NFTRH+; SIMG

Silicon Image (SIMG) is another Semiconductor company (HD & Mobile HD connectivity) that has been working its way up from a basing pattern.  It is another you may have noticed among my holdings (Roth IRA) as I bought it based on the look of the basing pattern, not the breakout above resistance, which just happened yesterday.  NFTRH+ focuses on real events, not hope-for events.

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September 19, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates / NFTRH+

NFTRH+; MLNX

Mellanox is an Israel based (US Headquarters in Sunnyvale, CA) Semiconductor company that you may have seen sitting in the brokerage account.  I bought it because it was making what looked like its second bull flag at around 41.  It has tested my patience, but has been firming lately.

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September 17, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; GDXJ Daily Chart Parameters

Folks, first I’ll note that hedging the precious metals for me has often proven more aggravating than it was worth.  That has been due to the grinding nature of this would-be big picture bottoming process.  So I am just letting you know that rather than selling junior and exploration gold positions in the IRA, I am protecting them with JDST with the intent to get through the FOMC tomorrow now that some gains have been made.  The biggest protection continues to be the ongoing high cash level as noted in NFTRH 308, which is the best form of risk management (in my opinion) until we get clear of some technical parameters.

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September 16, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates / NFTRH+

NFTRH+; YNDX

Well after getting on the Russia theme this morning, I took a look at Russia’s Google wannabe Yandex and liked the chart.  Considering its relative value (though certainly not a value, being an internet stock) has been hammered down due to the recent geopolitical headlines.  There is a technical setup here.

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September 12, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Speaking of Russia

This started out as an NFTRH+ update, but since any stance with the Russian stock market is a longer-term proposition, I decided it was best as a regular update for anyone who might be interested.  We’ll keep NFTRH+ on mostly shorter-term scenarios (INTC being an exception), often involving US stocks (and precious metals and commodities equities when they are in setups and when the macro fundamentals indicate a good backdrop).

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September 12, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; PM’s; Good, Bad & Ugly

Sentiment Backdrop

Improving CoT data, public opinion in the dumps, Hulbert’s HGNSI at an extreme bearish level and the contributed articles at Kitco uniformly bearish (or at least acknowledging that gold is done for a while).  Getting very bullish, but sentiment is not a very good timer.

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September 11, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Key ETF Update

A snapshot of current technicals for key markets…

GLD became very bearish with the breakdown from 124.  A rise above 123 is needed to even begin to repair this chart.

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September 9, 2014
NFTRH Interim Updates / NFTRH+

NFTRH+; EZU Short Setup & Parameters

This one is cut and dry technically.  Europe has been bouncing as expected and is apparently overjoyed about some Ukraine-Russia talks.  Backing out the hype what we have here is a hard down in an ETF that lost its uptrend and the 50/200 day moving averages.  It is now bouncing right back to them.

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September 3, 2014