Are bond market front-runners getting, well, run… or if Bessent failing?
I think it is a worthwhile question. It would be classic for those front-running a policymaker who advertised his intentions well in advance of a set date (September 9) to get lit up as is happening right now. In other words, maybe this Treasury bond move in the direction opposite to Bessent’s stated objectives is just ‘market stuff’.
Or maybe he is failing. Maybe the world is puking long-term Treasury bonds right back in his face, selling bonds hard with intent.
Personally, I still lean toward success for our stone-faced bond market manipulator. Maybe such success will help Trump bribe the American people with $5000 each. Who knows? It’s all funny munny anyway.
I lean toward this being a classic ‘in your face’ market move that temporarily flies not only in Bessent’s face, but in the faces of any bond traders who bought ahead of September 9th. I lean toward Bessent (good cop) and Warsh (bad cop) succeeding in rigging multiple things into November. But it’s not a strong lean.
Frankly, I am on less sure footing analytically than usual. Bessent, Warsh, Trump, the war, politics revving up and frankly, a stock market that deserves a severe correction or flat out bear. It’s a big pot and there are a lot of rancid ingredients being stirred.
Here are graphs we reviewed in NFTRH 931. If 2000 was a bubble…
…at money supply levels so much lower back then…
…what is it today at today’s money supply level?
That’s not even talking about today’s debt level, ticking above $40T, with gold added for emphasis to anyone who thinks gold has done anything other than finally caught up to the monetary chicanery.
The use of debt creation on a massive scale has for decades driven the economy (debt-to-GDP), but there has to be an end point to the game.
My view of a potential Goldilocks phase into/through the elections is just an interim view to what is a coming disaster, sooner or later. Meanwhile, today at least, the guy looks like a pathetic failure in his attempt to rig the macro in the near-term.
We shall see. Elections coming up.
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