Well, the answer is that the nice neat resistance of the breakdown was not going to hold on the bounce. As suspected in the July 19 video update, USD/DXY now appears to be eyeballing the SMA 50 next within its bearish technical situation. As such I’ve done a little rebalancing and a good chunk of selling today as stated would be the case if the buck looked to take out the clear and perhaps overly obvious resistance at the 100.50 to 101.50 area.
Whipsaw? It could be. But with cash paying out that 5%+ and risk so high in the markets, I am not going to get caught guessing or hoping. So I am taking profits, limiting losses, and may not be done yet.
Just an FYI that the USD is doing something very viable, which we 100% identified well in advance and it is doing it within a still-bearish daily chart structure (but as also noted, a flat out bullish monthly chart structure and fully intact weekly one). The bearish daily chart could come back into play if the upward correction goes on long enough to convince people that the USD is going bullish again (which of course it could ultimately do, but which I will not give credit for until it hits some upsides that are still well higher, in the 104+ area).
But the final fact is that USD is and has been in a bull market, bearish daily chart or not. That should also be respected.