NFTRH+; USD, Treasury bonds & market thoughts

The US dollar broke above resistance at the 2016 high (not shown on this daily chart), dropped back to test the SMA 50, popped back above resistance, faded to test it and has now turned it to support. While doing so, it relieved some of its overbought readings. USD is the anti-market, so it is no surprise that market stress is reappearing elsewhere in stocks, … Continue reading NFTRH+; USD, Treasury bonds & market thoughts

NFTRH+; this unit may be ‘selling the news’

We have covered USD in detail. If global asset markets (and especially commodity/resources-related and emerging markets) are going to experience relief, USD will have to weaken. Uncle Buck has finally acted like the counter-party it is to inflated asset markets, after diverging upward against them for much of 2021. USD (DXY) daily head faked above and now has dropped back below the key long-term resistance … Continue reading NFTRH+; this unit may be ‘selling the news’

NFTRH+; this remains at a potential resistance area

Just an FYI companion to the general market relief bounce theme. USD is is the counter-party to bearish markets and is still at the long-term resistance zone. Doesn’t need to stop there but it sure could if SPX and others are to experience relief, perhaps on Wed. CPI. That of course would need to be a ‘sell the news’ thing for the dollar, as it … Continue reading NFTRH+; this remains at a potential resistance area

NFTRH+; USD

A quick update on the counter-party to the risk ‘on’, inflated markets. The US dollar is aloft along with the Gold/Silver ratio, which is dis-inflationary signaling and also potentially risk ‘off’ signaling. The issue being that if risk goes ‘off’ global investment/trading entities seek the liquidity of the senior (reserve) currency. USD (DXY) is just below the 50 day average, which is turning into a … Continue reading NFTRH+; USD

Uncle Buck continues to rampage

The US dollar (DXY) continues to target 98 In Q1 2021 USD bottomed amid the usual suspects proclaiming “dollar collapse!” and “death of the dollar!” and inflation as far as the eye can see. Zero Hedge led the charge. As the inflation trades labored into the spring USD formed a neckline (black dashed), dropped for an interim (at least) last hurrah by the inflation boosters, … Continue reading Uncle Buck continues to rampage

Uncle Buck on a rampage against the macro this morning

US dollar (DXY) holds support at the SMA 50 There is a reason I keep an eye on divergences within markets (USD has been one against inflated markets for all of 2021), trends (USD trend is up since January) and support/resistance/moving averages. Today, even if in microcosm, USD informs us that it is alive and well as of this moment and by extension, a threat … Continue reading Uncle Buck on a rampage against the macro this morning

US Dollar on plan, attended by the Gold/Silver ratio

US dollar (DXY) has activated its Inverted H&S, Gold/Silver maintains its uptrend, watch silver going foward… I do not make predictions because I do not pretend to be a guru.* But NFTRH has been tracking what has been an uptrend in the US dollar for all of 2021, keeping us well aware of the potentials being realized from late summer into the fall. A higher … Continue reading US Dollar on plan, attended by the Gold/Silver ratio

NFTRH+; there’s the breakout…

Uncle Buck is making a definitive breakout above resistance after previously holding the neckline to the Inverted H&S. Daily RSI and MACD are aligned for higher levels as well. In a sense it continues to be USD (and the also firm Gold/Silver ratio) vs. long-term yields and inflation expectations. It’s an epic battle and speaking personally, something of a mental whipsaw. Recall that these two … Continue reading NFTRH+; there’s the breakout…