The Silver/Gold ratio finally burst upward as anticipated after grinding out a bottoming pattern. That kicked in more commodity trades as would happen when silver (more industrial commodity than gold) would lead.
The SGR of course hit its minimum upside objective in no time as silver reactions tend to do things in big gulps, not calm phases. This chart illustrates why I started taking some profits yesterday in commodities and precious metals. The favored objective was the downtrending 200 day average (orange) or the resistance area above it.
Now let’s take a look at Uncle Buck. I have been enjoying picking bottom feeds (like the SGR above and several individual stocks) lately and if the buck were a stock you liked, you might have an eye on its chart.
Make no mistake, USD is bearish. It’s trend is hard down, ruled by the SMA 50 for all of 2025 as America got “great again”. While it is probably a 50/50 call, USD is perched in a way to make a double bottom and RSI and MACD appear permissive of that in their alignments.
It is important to note that IF a bounce off this pattern plays out, its implication is a bounce, not necessarily a resumption of the bull (USD is still in a bull from 2008). A reasonable objective would the resistance in the 103.30 area, toward which the SMA 200 is easing.
If this happens, silver would likely abort leadership over gold and resume its downtrend, gold and gold stocks might come under pressure and the commodity rally would likely start springing leaks.
It’s important to note that nothing of sort (USD breaking bullish in any way) has happened. I am looking ahead with a ‘what if?’ similar to how we looked ahead with the Silver/Gold ratio and asked (and answered) ‘what if?’
Good to do this exercise no doubt. My view is other than bounce, there is enough triggered to confirm $USD lower and baton from pet rock to hi ho and the other white (and red headed step child Cu). I’m in particular focused on figuring out a round two PGM trade after a summer pause. Same goes for Cu, which we’ve done well with over the past month via ++ posts, in particular $HBM. I want to look forward for more of a swing / position trade vs these quick hitter measured move types (which are incredible if you get lucky).
I am on a short leash now. The party can go on indefinitely, and typically I was early to it and early getting guarded on it. But a USD bounce – if it musters – could provide a nice early summer cool down for the summer pause prior to a bigger party. One option among others, but one that I think is very doable. But first, the momos are piling in now. They may not stop on a dime. Or on a silver eagle.