2-year Treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates?

The 2 year Treasury yield inched up, then sagged

The session ended with the 2 year Treasury yield up a teeny within the potential topping structure that we’ve been tracking in NFTRH the last couple of weeks.

2-year Treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates by half a point, indicates more hikes

Yeah yeah, we get it. The Fed is hawking. The tardy Fed that neglected to start hawking until long after forward looking inflation signals had first started to demand tightening action.

Here is how CNBC shows it in real time.

2-year treasury yield rises after fed raises rates

It closed earlier today and was up a bit. But, this…

u.s. treasury yield rises after Fed raises rates (UST2Y)

Okay, so it’s a daily chart with a potential topping pattern. Not exactly earth shattering news to anyone who’s been paying attention in Q4, 2022. But it’s the implications of this chart, its longer-term versions and its role in indicating what’s ahead both nominally and when considered along with other things like, say, the yield curve, of which the 2 year Treasury yield is the ‘short end’.

Folks, things they gonna change in 2023. That is not a proclamation of bearishness, but it is a warning that you’d better know your market signaling and go by the messages the signals provide. 2022 was so inflation and Fed hawk obsessive. 2023? Different, baby.

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